人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

28JUTHATHIPJONGWANICH

TABLE2

PeriodofCoverageforEconometricAnalysisoftheExportFunctions

CountryPRC

IndonesiaKoreaMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeTaipei,ChinaThailand

PeriodCoverage1996–2008Q11994–2007Q41993–2007Q41994–2007Q41994–2007Q41993–2007Q41995–2008Q11995–2007Q4

exportequationsineightEastandSoutheastAsianeconomies.Exportvolumefortotalandsub-categoriesisderivedfromadjustingexportvaluesbyappropriateexportpriceindices.Theexportvaluehererefersonlytodomesticexports,i.e.excludingre-exports.

Therealexchangerate(RER)ismeasuredastheratiooftheexport-weightedproducerpriceindexoftradingpartnercountriesexpressedindomesticcurrencyrelativetothedomesticproducerpriceindex.Exportshareisusedonthebasisofthesuperiorityinrepresentingthecountry’scompetitivenessthanotherpossibleweightssuchastotaltradeshareorimportshares(Warr,1986).Notethattwoalternativerealexchangeratemeasures,whichare(1)theexport-weightedproducerpriceindexoftradingpartnercountriesexpressedindomesticcurrencyrelativetothedomesticconsumerpriceindexand(2)theconsumerpriceindexoftradingpartnercountriestothedomesticconsumerpriceindex,areconductedbuttheestimationoutcomeofthesetwoalternativerealexchangeratemeasuresyieldedvirtuallyidenticalresultssothatonlytheestimatesusingtheforeignanddomesticproducerpriceindicesarereportedhere.

Worlddemand(WD)ismeasuredastheweightedaverageoftherealincomesofkeyexportpartners,whichtogetheraccountfor75percentofshipmentsofEastandSoutheastAsiatoalltradepartners.Theproductioncapacityoftotalexports,totalmanufacturingandSITC7isproxiedbythetrendoftheirrealoutputusingtheHodrick–Prescott ltermethod.Othermethods,suchasexponentialsmoothingandtheKalman lter,providevirtuallyidenticalresultsbuttheHodrick–Prescott lterisselectedasithasthebestperformanceintermsofdiagnostictestindeterminingprivateexportequations.

Dataseriesofexportvalue(totalandsub-categories),exportprices,consumerpriceindex,producerpriceindex,realGDPandnetforeigndirectinvestmentin ows(FDI)werecompiledfromCEICDataCompanyLtd.NominalexchangerateswerecompiledfromInternationalFinancialStatistics(CD-ROM),Inter-nationalMonetaryFundandCEICDataCompanyLtd.Alldataseriesareusedinnaturallogarithmsinregressionestimation.

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009