人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

EXPORTPERFORMANCEINEASTANDSOUTHEASTASIA21

(2002)andRauchandTrindade(2002),ontheotherhand,havearguedthattheincreasingimportanceofproductfragmentationandoftradeinpartsandcom-ponentscouldinducestrongersubstitutionresponsesasthepresenceofproductionfacilitiesindifferentcountrieswouldallow rmstorespondmorenimblytointernationalpricechangesbyshiftingactivitiesacrossborders.

Withthedebateunresolved,thispaperaimstoexaminethedeterminantsofexports,withanemphasisontheroleofrealexchangerateunderanincreasingimportanceofpartsandcomponentstrade.Toseewhetherexportsinpartsandcomponentsare‘special’andtoallowcomparisons,exportequationsareestimatedforthreedifferentexportcategories,whicharetotalmerchandiseexports,manu-facturingexports,andexportsofmachineryandtransportequipment(SITC7)largelyconsistingofpartsandcomponentsexports.TheanalysisisconductedforeighteconomiesinEastandSoutheastAsia2during1993–2008,aperiodoverwhichintermediategoodstradeburgeoned.3

Theorganisationofthepaperisasfollows.Section2providesanoverviewofchangesinthecompositionofexportsoverthepastthreedecades.Aliteraturesurveyrelatingtotheroleofrealexchangerateindeterminingfragmentationtradeisalsoprovidedinthissection.Theempiricalmodel,variablemeasurementandeconometricprocedurearepresentedinSection3.Section4presentsanddiscussestheregressionresults.The nalsectionsummariseskeyinferences.

2.EXPORTCOMPOSITIONINEASTANDSOUTHEASTASIA

Duringthepastthreedecades,manufacturingexportsfromEastandSoutheastAsianeconomieshaveexpandedrapidlyandgainedinrelativeimportanceintotalmerchandiseexports(Figure1).4InKoreaandTaipei,China,theproportionofmanufacturingtototalexportshasbeenpersistentlyhigh,ataround90percentoverthepastthreedecades.OtherthanforIndonesia,theshareofmanufacturingexportshasexceeded80percentduringthepost-crisisperiod.Thesharehassigni cantlyincreasedinthePhilippines,from50percentduring1991–95tomorethan90percentduring1996–2006,whileithasclimbedgraduallyinthe

TheeighteconomiesinEastandSoutheastAsiaarethePeople’sRepublicofChina(PRC);Indonesia;RepublicofKorea(henceforthKorea);Malaysia;Philippines;Singapore;Taipei,China;andThailand.3

ThoughexportsarenowgrowingquicklyinsomeSouthAsiancountries,ithasnotyetlatchedontointernationalproductionnetworkstothesamedegreeasEastandSoutheastAsia.Besides,comparabledatadonotexistforSouthAsiancountries.4

Theevolutionofexportpatternsintheregioncanbetracedusingdetailedtradedata,speci callytheUnitedNationsCommodityStatisticsDatabase(UNCOMTRADE),basedonRevision3oftheStandardInternationalTradeClassi cation(SITC,Rev.3),andStatisticsCanada,WorldTradeAnalyserforTaipei,China.

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009

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