人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

EXPORTPERFORMANCEINEASTANDSOUTHEASTASIA25

reachingover40percentinMalaysia,PhilippinesandSingaporeandabout30percentinThailandduring2000–06.Betweenthesetwoperiods,theshareofcomponentsintotalmanufacturingexportsmorethandoubledinthePRC,from6percentto14percent.InKoreaandTaipei,China,therelativeimportanceofcomponentsintotalmanufacturingexportshasincreasedovertheyear,con-tradictingthepopularbeliefthattheseeconomieshadshiftedpalpablyfromassemblyactivitiesto nalgoodsproduction.

EventhoughtheshareofpartsandcomponentsinIndonesiaroseconsiderablyduringthesameperiod,itwasbecauseoftheirinitiallowexportbase.Infact,theirdollarvalueremainedlowrelativetothoseofothereconomiesintheregion:in2005,forexample,thedollarvalueofpartsandcomponentsexportsfromIndonesiawasaboutaquarterthatofThailand.ThesmallweightofpartsandcomponentsandSITC7inIndonesianmanufacturingexportsindicatesthatthecountryhasbeenslowerthanotherstointegrateincross-borderproductionnetworks.Notethatthegrowingimportanceofinternationalproductfragmentationintheseeighteconomieshasbeenassociatedwiththediversi cationofexportdestinations.Inparticular,thePRChasbecomeoneofthemajorexportdestinationsforalleconomiesinthisregion,particularlyforSITC7exports(Jongwanich,2007).InKorea,Malaysia,Philippines,SingaporeandThailand,exportvaluetothePRCasashareoftotalexportsincreasedalmost vetimesduringthisperiod,attheexpenseoftheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnion(EU).ItwasonlyforthePRCthattheUnitedStatesandEUhavebeenincreasinglyimportantoverthepast15years.TheUSandEUmarketsaccountedfor21percentand16percent,respectively,ofthePRC’stotalexportmarketduring2000–05,increasingfrom16percentand11percentin1990–95.Insigni cantmeasure,theexpan-sionofintra-regionaltradere ectsthePRC’sroleasanassemblypointanditsgreaterrelianceondemandfromoutsidetheregion,theUnitedStatesandEUinparticular.ThroughitsforwardlinkagestothePRC,therestoftheregionalsoremainsdependentonexternalsourcesof naldemand.

Theincreasingimportanceofpartsandcomponentstradecouldhaveanimplicationonfactorsaffectingexportperformance,particularlytheroleofrealexchangerate.JonesandKierzkowski(2001)andArndtandHuemer(2004)havepointedoutthatasurgeinintermediatetradewouldunderminetheimportanceofrealexchangerateinaffectingexportperformance.Ifexportsaremadewithimportedcomponents,thenadepreciation(revaluation)ofitscurrencylowers(raises)theforeigncurrencypriceofitsexportsbutitalsoincreases(reduces)thehomecurrencypricesofitscomponentimports.Thelatter’seffectontheforeigncurrencypriceofitsexportsrunscountertotheeffectofthedepreciation(appreciation),reducingtheoveralleffectandthussensitivityofexportstorealexchangeratechanges.

Inaddition,theinternationalproductfragmentationhasbeeninvolvedwiththeestablishmentof‘servicelinks’tocombinevariousfragmentsoftheproduction

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009