人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

30JUTHATHIPJONGWANICH

4.RESULTS

The nalparsimoniousestimatesoftheexportmodel,togetherwithasetofcommonlyuseddiagnosticstatistics,andlong-runelasticitiescomputedfromthesteady-statesolutionstotheestimatedequationsarereportedintheAppendix.Theestimatedexportequationsarestatisticallysigni cantatthe1percentlevelintermsofthestandardF-testanditperformswellintermsofstandarddiagnostictestsforserialcorrelation(LM),normality(JBN),heteroscedasticity(ARCH),andwhitenessoftheregressionresiduals.TheWu–Hausmantestsuggestsnoevidenceofsimultaneityforanyofthesevariables.Whileallvariables,exceptforFDI,aremeasuredinnaturallogarithms,theregressioncoef cientscanbeinterpretedaselasticities.Table3providesthesummaryresultsofRERcoef cientsintheeightEastandSoutheastAsiancountries.

Ingeneral,thelong-runrealexchangeratecoef cientsofmachineryandtransportequipment(SITC7)exportsarethelowest(orinsigni cant)whilethecoef cientsoftotalmerchandiseexportsarethehighest,withthoseofmanufac-turingexportscominginbetween.Theseresultsseemtosuggestthatexportsofmanufactured nalproducts,especiallylabour-intensiveproducts,aremoreresponsivetochangesinRERthanareexportsofSITC7products,whichhavetorelytoagreaterextentonimportedpartsandcomponents.Inthecaseoftotalexports,primaryproductshaveasigni cantweight,andprimaryproductsbynaturerelyheavilyonlocalrawmaterialscomparedwithmanufacturingproducts.Hence,theimpactofRERchangesismostprominentintotalexportcategories.Takentogether,theseresultsareconsistentwiththehypothesisthatexpandingproductfragmentationandintermediategoodstradeweakensthein uenceofRERonexportperformance.ThisresultisalsofoundinAthukorala(2004)whoinvestigatestheroleoftherealexchangerateinThailand’sexportperformanceover1995–2003,andArndtandHuemer(2004)whoexaminetheeffectofcross-borderproductionsharingbetweentheUnitedStatesandMexicoduring1989–2002.

RERcoef cientsvaryacrosstheeighteconomies.Ingeneral,RERhastheleastimpactonthePhilippines’exportswhiletheimpactisthegreatestinIndonesia.InthePhilippines,thelong-runcoef cientsofRERinallthreecategoriesarestatisticallyinsigni cantwhileintheshortrun,thecoef cientsareequalto0.2fortotalmerchandiseexports.InthecaseofIndonesia,bycontrast,theyaregreaterthan1intotalmerchandiseandmanufacturingexports(bothintheshortandlongrun)andlessthan1inSITC7exports,i.e.0.72intheshortrunand0.97inthelongrun.ThisisconsistentwiththefactthatexportsandimportsinthePhilippineshavebeendominatedbypartsandcomponentsoverthepastdecade(seeSection2).Incontrast,Indonesiahasmuchgreaterproductdiversi cationinitsexportbasket.Inaddition,IndonesiatodatehasbeenslowinjoininginternationalproductionnetworksofMNEsintheSITC7category.

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009