人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

26JUTHATHIPJONGWANICH

processinatimelyandcost-ef cientmanner.Thus,thelocationaldecisionsofMNEsoperatinginassemblyactivitiesarestronglyin uencedbythepresenceofotherkeyvariablessuchasadequateinfrastructure,excellentlogisticcapability,availabilityofworld-classoperator,andtechnicalandmanagerialskills(BarryandBradley,1997;RuaneandGorg,2001).Also,thereisageneraltendencyforMNEaf liatestobecomeincreasinglyembeddedinhostcountriesthelongertheyarepresentthereandthemoreconducivetheoverallinvestmentclimateofthehostcountrybecomesovertime.Theymayrespondsluggishlytorelativecostchangesoncetheyhaveinvestedsubstantialresourcesindomesticproductionfacilitiesandinestablishinginformationlinks.

However,Obstfeld(2002)andRauchandTrindade(2002)havearguedthattheincreasingimportanceofproductfragmentationandoftradeinpartsandcomponentswouldinduce rmstorespondmorestronglytochangeinrelativepricesbyswitchingbetweendomesticandimportedinputs,orbyshiftingtasksacrossborders.Thiscouldhappenbecausethepresenceofproductionfacilitiesindifferentcountriesenhancestheinternational owofinformationwithinthe rm,allowingittorespondmorenimblytointernationalpricechangesbyshiftingactivitiesacrossborders.

Empiricalevidencerelatingtodeterminantsofexportsunderfragmentationtradeisstilllimited.ArndtandHuemer(2004)examinetheeffectofcross-borderproductionsharingbetweentheUnitedStatesandMexicoonthesensitivityoftradeto(real)exchangerateduringtheperiod1989–2002.Thereduced-formexportequationisemployed.Exportsaredisaggregatedintoexportsofmanufac-tures,exportsofnon-manufacturersandexportsofmotorvehiclepartsandcomponents.Theroleofrealexchangerateonexportswasnotfoundinmotorvehiclepartsexports,whichwasheavilyinvolvedwiththeproductionnetworkandverticalspecialisationsothattheroleofrealexchangeratebecomesinsigni cant.Athukorala(2004)investigatestheroleofexchangerateonexportperformancebyusingThailandasacasestudyduringtheperiod1995–2003.Asimilarformoftheexportfunctionisapplied,i.e.exportvolumeisafunctionofrealexchangerate,worlddemandandcapacityutilisation,fortotalmanufacturedexportsandthefoursub-categoriestherein:chemical(SITC5),basic(resource-based)manufacturing(SITC6),machineryandtransportequipment(SITC7),andmiscellaneousexports(SITC8).Theresultspointtosigni cantdifferencesinthedegreeofelasticityacrossthefourcategoriesandtherealexchangerateelasticityislowestformachineryandtransportequipment.

Chinn(2005)estimatesexportfunctionintheUnitedStatesunderverticalspecialisationduring1967Q1–2007Q1.Exportsofgoods,excludingagricultureandbothagricultureandcapitalgoods,areestimatedasafunctionofdomesticeconomicactivity,measuredbyUSGDPin2000chain-weighteddollars,realexchangerate,investmentequipmentandforeigneconomicactivity,measuredbyrealrest-of-worldGDPweightedbyUSexportstomajortradingpartners.Incontrast

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JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009