人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

EXPORTPERFORMANCEINEASTANDSOUTHEASTASIA27

toArndtandHuemer(2004)andAthukorala(2004),exportsbecomemoresensitivetochangesinrealexchangerateunderverticalspecialisation,whileincomewouldbecomelessimportant,supportinganargumentthatproductfragmentationwouldinduce rmstorespondmorestronglytochangeinrelativepricesbyswitchingbetweendomesticandimportedinputs,orbyshiftingtasksacrossborders.

3.EMPIRICALMODEL,VARIABLEMEASUREMENTAND

ECONOMETRICPROCEDURE

Toexaminethedeterminantsofexports,thefollowing‘reduced-form’exportequationsareperformedfortotalmerchandise,totalmanufacturingandSITC7exports:

ð1Þ

whereXiistheexportvolumeincategoryi,includingtotal(TE),manufacturing(ME)andSITC7(SITC7),RERistherealeffectiveexchangerate,WDistherealincomeinimportingcountries,PCisthedomesticproductioncapacityinthetradablesectorandFDIisthein owsofforeigndirectinvestment.8NotethatfortheSITC7exportequation,thecross-effectsbetweenthedifferentcategoriesofexports(OTH)arecapturedbyincludingexportsinothermanufacturingcategories(SITC5,6and8).

Ideally,weshouldhaveworkedwithafullyspeci edexportmodel,whichcapturesdemand-andsupply-sidein uencesseparately,whileappropriatelyallowingthepossibilityofsimultaneousintegrationinvolvedinthedeterminationofquantityandprices.Unfortunately,high-frequencydataarenotavailableforthispurpose.However,thesimultaneityissueisnotabindingconstraintbecausetheeconometricprocedurethatisappliedinthisstudy,i.e.general-to-speci cmodelling(GSM),wouldpermitustotestforthecointegration(long-termrela-tionship).9Iftheparticularvectorofrelatedvariablesisputtogetheronthebasisofsoundeconometricreasoning,thecointegrationrelationshipamongthemcanbeinterpretedasthe(long-run)equilibriumrelationship.

Theabovemodelwasestimatedusingquarterlydata.Accordingtotheavailabilityofexportdata,theperiodofcoveragefortheexportequationsvariesfromcountrytocountry.Table2summarisestheperiodofcoverageforestimatingthe

Notethatthereduced-formexportequationiswidelyperformedinthisresearcharea.See,forexample,GoldsteinandKhan(1985),Busheetal.(1986),ArndtandHuemer(2004),Athukorala(2004)andChinn(2003,2005).9

Boundtestcouldbeappliedtotestfortheirequilibrium(long-run)relationship(i.e.cointegra-tion);seePesaranetal.(2001).

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009

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