人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

The World Economy

TheWorldEconomy(2010)

doi:10.1111/j.1467-9701.2009.01184.x

DeterminantsofExportPerformance

inEastandSoutheastAsia

JuthathipJongwanich

AsianDevelopmentBank

1.INTRODUCTION

NTERNATIONALproductfragmentation–thecross-borderdispersionofcomponentproduction/assemblywithinverticallyintegratedproductionprocesses1–hasbecomeanimportantfeatureofthestructuralinterdependenceoftheworldeconomy.Rapidadvancesinproductiontechnologyandtechnologicalinnovationsintransportationandcommunicationshaveallowedcompaniesto‘unbundle’thestagesofproductionsothatdifferenttaskscanbeperformedindifferentplaces.Also,tradeliberalisationandinvestmentpolicyreformsindevelopingcountrieshavegreatlyreducedbarrierstotradeandinvestment,therebyfurtherencouragingexpansionanddispersionofoutwarddirectinvestmentofmultinationalenterprises(MNEs).Thesedynamicshaveresultedinashiftinthecompositionofexportstowardsintermediategoods(partsandcomponents).Anumberofimplicationshaveemergedfromthegrowingimportanceoffragmentationtrade.Oneaspectisrelatedtofactorsthatin uenceexportperformanceunderthiscircumstance,particularlytheroleofrealexchangerate.Ontheonehand,JonesandKierzkowski(2001)andArndtandHuemer(2004)havearguedthatasurgeinintermediategoodstradecoulddiluterealexchangerateimpactsasintermediateexportsinvolveahighproportionofimportedpartsandcomponentsandhigh xedcostsinestablishingthe‘servicelinks’.Obstfeld

TheauthorwouldliketothankDrIfzalAli,DrFrancisJ.HarriganandDrWilliamE.Jamesforcommentsandsuggestions.Thecommentsandhelpfulcriticismsfromanonymousrefereesareacknowledged.TheviewsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthorandnotnecessarilythoseoftheAsianDevelopmentBank.

Thisphenomenonhasgoneunderalternativenames,suchas‘verticalspecialisation’(Hummelsetal.,2001;Irwin,2002),‘slicingthevaluechain’(Krugman,1995),‘internationalproductionsharing’(NgandYeats,2001),‘outsourcing’(RanganandLawrence,1999;Hansonetal.,2001)and‘productfragmentation’(Jones,2000;Baldwin,2001;JonesandKierzkowski,2001;Athukorala,2005).

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓ2009BlackwellPublishingLtd,9600GarsingtonRoad,

Oxford,OX42DQ,UKand350MainStreet,Malden,MA02148,USA

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