人民币 汇率 升值 经济影响 进出口贸易

EXPORTPERFORMANCEINEASTANDSOUTHEASTASIA33

Productioncapacityisanothercrucialfactorinaffectingexportperformanceoftheseeightcountries.Inparticular,long-runestimatesofproductioncapacityarenotonlystatisticallysigni cantbutlargeinabsolutevalue.Thistendstoimplythatsupply-sidefactors,suchasinfrastructure,logisticscapabilities,skillsandthegeneralbusinessclimate,arelikelytobeimportantindeterminingexportperformance.Inadditiontoproductioncapacity,FDIbecomesstatisticallysigni cantindeterminingexportperformanceinallcategories.Thecoef cienttendstobehigherinacaseofmanufacturingexports.TheimportanceofFDIindeterminingexportperformance,evenusingaggregatedata,tendstosupportthehypothesisthatmultinationalcorporations(MNCs)arelikelytobeinabetterpositiontoovercome xedcostsinducedbyexportsandhaveahigherchancetosuccessfullyexport.Inaddition,MNCpresencecouldindirectlypromotelocallynon-af liated rmstoexport,i.e.exportspilloversthroughinformationexternalities,demonstration,andimitationandcompetition(Aitkenetal.,1997;Greenawayetal.,2004).

5.CONCLUSION

ThispaperexaminesdeterminantsofexportsineightEastandSoutheastAsianeconomies,withanemphasisontheincreasinglyimportantroleofpartsandcomponentsexports.Theexportequationsareestimatedforthreedifferentexportcategories–totalmerchandiseexports,manufacturingexports,andexportsofmachineryandtransportequipment(SITC7)–during1993–2008.Thefunctionalformofexportsisbasedonthe‘imperfectsubstitution’modelinwhichexportvolumeisdeterminedasafunctionofrealexchangerate,worlddemand,produc-tioncapacityandforeigndirectinvestment.ForSITC7exports,thecross-effectsbetweenthedifferentcategoriesofexportsarecapturedbyincludingexportsinothermanufacturingcategories(SITC5,6and8).

Thekey ndingssuggestthatrapiddiversi cationofexportsawayfromtraditionalproductsandtowardsassembly/componentspecialisationwithinglobalindustrieshavetendedtoweakenthelinkbetweentherealexchangerateandexportperformance.Worlddemand,FDIandproductioncapacityhaveincreasedinimportanceindeterminingexports.Thestatisticalsigni canceoftheworlddemandvariableunderthisformofinternationalspecialisationaddsweighttotheobservationthatexternalmarketsoutsidedevelopingAsiaarestillimportant.WhilethePRCbecomesanimportantexportdestinationofAsianeconomies,thePRC’sexportshavestillreliedmoreondemandfromoutsidetheregion,particularlyfromtheUSandEUmarkets.Thiscon rmsthateventhoughfragmentationtradehasplayedapivotalroleindeepeningintra-regionaleconomicinterdependence,thishasbeensustainedbycontinuingstrongexternalrelianceon nalgoodsdemand.

Ó2009TheAuthor

JournalcompilationÓBlackwellPublishingLtd.2009