2012东三省数学建模论文论文

AR 1 5.228667 5.339434 5.447386 5.553073

5.435974 5.508633

AR 2 5.338819 5.449353 5.558133 5.662878

5.543838 5.591231

AR 3 5.445882 5.556225 5.642139 5.752895

5.519448 5.541168

AR 4 5.285349 5.395004 5.457846 5.378142

5.434042 5.500542

AR 5 5.372172 5.482732 5.541387 5.411368

5.513898

Approx

Pr > |t|

0.0025

<.0001

5.611257 Lag 0 1 Error series model: AR(8) Minimum Table Value: BIC(1,0) = 5.228667 参数估计 The ARIMA Procedure Conditional Least Squares Estimation Standard Parameter Estimate Error t Value MU 26.96788 8.15550 3.31 AR1,1 0.70710 0.13679 5.17 Constant Estimate 7.898899 Variance Estimate 227.3012 Std Error Estimate 15.07651 AIC 258.1213 SBC 260.9893 Number of Residuals 31 * AIC and SBC do not include log determinant. Correlations of Parameter Estimates Parameter MU AR1,1 MU 1.000 -0.212