方兴地产 2009 中期报告

管理層討論與分析MANAgEMENT DISCuSSION AND ANAlySIS

一、市場回顧

從宏觀經濟層面看，2009年上半年中國經濟整體回暖跡象明顯，國內生產總值同比增長7.1%。分季度看，第一季度增長6.1%，第二季度增長7.9%，第二季度比第一季度加快1.8個百分點。全社會固定資產投資同比增長33.5%。社會消費品零售總額同比增長15.0%。

從地產行業層面看，2009年6月全國房地產開發景氣指數為96.55,比5月份提高0.61點。2009年2月至6月，國房景氣指數經歷了觸底回升過程，雖然該指數仍處於不景氣區間，但已連續3個月保持回升。2009年1月至6月，中國完成房地產的新開工面積、土地購置面積、土地開發面積等同比雖繼續下降，但降幅均顯著收窄。商品住宅及辦公樓銷售面積及銷售額同比有所增長，種種跡象顯示市場需求正在逐步回升。同時開發商的信貸支持在第二季度也大幅回升，開發商的投資、施工等運行指標在逐步恢復。

從區域市場層面看，2009年上半年一線城市甲級寫字樓雖然仍延續租金下降，空置率上升的態勢，但下降幅度已大大減緩。同時北京市政府推出一系列優惠政策吸引跨國企業的地區總部落戶。伴隨着國內經濟復蘇以及全球經濟逐步見底，預計2009年下半年寫字樓市場有望回暖。

2009年上半年，中國酒店業經受了金融危機和甲型H1N1流感雙重危機的影響，酒店行業整體入住率和平均房價都有較大幅度的下降，整個酒店行業市場競爭更加激烈。但隨着全球經濟回暖的信號日益明顯，酒店經營也將大大改善，特別是此次受到衝擊最為嚴重的一線城市的高檔酒店將會率先受惠於全球經濟的回升，同時中國強勁的經濟增長也為國內酒店業的復蘇奠定基礎，另外2010年在上海舉辦的世博會更將成為國內一線城市酒店行業整體復蘇的加速器。1. MARkET REvIEW

From a macroeconomic perspective, China’s economy as a whole demonstrated obvious signs of recovery during the first half of 2009, as evidenced by a 7.1% growth in GDP as compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of growth rate by quarters, China’s GDP grew by 6.1% in the first quarter and 7.9% in the second quarter, and the growth rate in the second quarter accelerated by 1.8 percentage points as compared to that of the previous quarter. Total fixed asset investment in the PRC grew by 33.5% as compared to the same period of the previous year. Total retail sales volume of consumer goods grew by 15.0% as compared to the same period of the previous year.

From the perspective of the real estate industry, the National Booming Index for the Development of Real Estate (the “Booming Index”) reached 96.55 in June 2009, up 0.61 point from May. From February to June 2009, the Booming Index had been bottoming-out. Though it was still in the depression zone, it had been recovering for three consecutive months. From January to June 2009, the total area of newly started projects, the total area of acquired land and the area of land under development recorded a decline as compared to the same period of the previous year, but at a much moderate pace. Both the gross floor area sold and sales revenue of residential and office properties increased as compared to the same period of the previous year, indicating that market demand is gradually recovering. At the same time, credit facilities to property developers in the second quarter also saw a sharp rebound, resulting in the gradual resumption of investment and construction activities by the developers.

From the perspective of regional markets, A-grade office buildings in first-tier cities continued to record declining rentals and rising vacancy rate during the first half of 2009, however, the decline had slowed down significantly. Besides, the Beijing Municipal Government has introduced a series of preferential policies to attract multinational companies to establish their regional headquarters in Beijing. Along with the recovery of the domestic economy and the bottoming-out of the global economy, the office market is expected to pick up in the second half of 2009.

In the first half of 2009, the hotel industry in China was severely hit by the financial crisis and H1N1 Influenza A at the same time. The overall occupancy rate and average room rates of the hotel industry suffered a significant decline, while competition within the industry became even more intensified. However, as the signs of recovery in the global economy have become more obvious, the operation of hotel industry has been greatly improved, especially for those most significantly affected high-end hotels located in the first-tier cities, which will be the first benefiting from the rebound in global economy. Meanwhile, China’s strong momentum for economic growth will also lay a solid foundation for the recovery in China’s hotel industry. In addition, the World Expo to be held in Shanghai in 2010 will also boost the overall recovery of the hotel industry in China’s first-tier cities.

方興地產（中國）有限公司　二零零九年中期報告8