分红预案低于预期，收入业绩表现双靓丽(4)

分红预案低于预期，收入业绩表现双靓丽

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4

财务预测摘要

资产负债表(百万元) 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 利润表(百万元) 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 货币资金95,613.13 99,610.43 98,237.64 108,425.47 127,657.16 营业收入110,113.10 150,019.55 196,326.67 217,664.60 239,029.41 应收账款3,205.52 6,067.32 5,763.44 7,270.11 7,227.06 营业成本72,885.64 99,562.91 130,851.72 145,399.95 159,838.97 预付账款1,814.95 3,717.87 1,370.80 4,283.64 1,932.32 营业税金及附加1,430.40 1,513.04 1,999.43 2,413.18 2,498.38 存货9,024.91 16,568.35 17,654.81 19,781.03 21,567.48 营业费用16,477.27 16,660.27 24,540.83 26,555.08 28,683.53 其他33,252.28 45,570.68 62,055.66 54,611.88 71,139.10 管理费用5,488.96 6,071.14 8,442.05 9,185.45 9,943.62 流动资产合计142,910.78 171,534.65 185,082.36 194,372.13 229,523.13 财务费用(4,845.55) 431.28 (1,714.22) (2,334.03) (2,666.29) 长期股权投资103.91 110.39 110.39 110.39 110.39 资产减值损失(0.99) 263.79 116.37 126.39 168.85 固定资产17,718.61 17,482.11 17,006.85 16,376.11 15,639.08 公允价值变动收益1,093.33 9.21 (2.05) 0.00 0.00 在建工程581.54 1,020.71 648.43 437.06 292.23 投资净收益(2,221.36) 396.65 400.00 400.00 400.00 无形资产3,355.28 3,604.47 3,516.73 3,428.99 3,341.26 其他2,349.70 (1,015.41) (795.91) (800.00) (800.00) 其他12,962.40 14,542.24 13,443.01 13,885.31 13,955.89 营业利润17,455.70 26,126.67 32,488.43 36,718.58 40,962.36 非流动资产合计34,721.74 36,759.92 34,725.41 34,237.86 33,338.85 营业外收入1,096.23 511.06 500.00 500.00 500.00 资产总计182,369.71 214,968.00 226,235.51 234,556.11 269,211.08 营业外支出20.74 20.54 20.00 20.00 20.00 短期借款10,701.08 18,646.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 利润总额18,531.19 26,617.18 32,968.43 37,198.58 41,442.36 应付账款31,764.08 37,157.37 51,218.03 46,314.42 60,552.16 所得税3,006.56 4,108.59 5,164.02 5,867.91 6,475.22 其他84,411.12 91,687.33 96,619.96 97,179.08 103,483.14 净利润15,524.63 22,508.60 27,804.41 31,330.67 34,967.14 流动负债合计126,876.28 147,490.79 147,837.99 143,493.50 164,035.30 少数股东损益103.67 107.02 172.98 184.37 196.52 长期借款0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 归属于母公司净利润15,420.96 22,401.58 27,631.43 31,146.30 34,770.61 应付债券0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 每股收益（元） 2.56 3.72 4.59 5.18 5.78 其他569.82 642.41 572.82 595.02 603.42

非流动负债合计569.82 642.41 572.82 595.02 603.42

负债合计127,446.10 148,133.20 148,410.81 144,088.52 164,638.72 主要财务比率2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 少数股东权益1,059.65 1,239.79 1,412.77 1,597.14 1,793.67 成长能力

股本6,015.73 6,015.73 6,015.73 6,015.73 6,015.73 营业收入9.50% 36.24% 30.87% 10.87% 9.82% 资本公积183.40 103.88 103.88 103.88 103.88 营业利润29.15% 49.67% 24.35% 13.02% 11.56% 留存收益47,758.02 59,343.63 70,396.20 82,854.72 96,762.96 归属于母公司净利润23.05% 45.27% 23.35% 12.72% 11.64% 其他(93.20) 131.77 (103.88) (103.88) (103.88) 获利能力

股东权益合计54,923.60 66,834.80 77,824.70 90,467.59 104,572.36 毛利率33.81% 33.63% 33.35% 33.20% 33.13% 负债和股东权益总182,369.71 214,968.00 226,235.51 234,556.11 269,211.08 净利率14.00% 14.93% 14.07% 14.31% 14.55%

ROE 28.63% 34.15% 36.16% 35.05% 33.83%

ROIC -20.29% -47.09% -72.20% -72.25% -84.76% 现金流量表(百万元) 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 偿债能力

净利润15,524.63 22,508.60 27,631.43 31,146.30 34,770.61 资产负债率69.88% 68.91% 65.60% 61.43% 61.16% 折旧摊销1,816.68 2,033.00 995.28 1,009.85 1,019.59 净负债率28.46% 31.62% 38.39% 54.57% 33.85% 财务费用(3,245.96) 1,532.77 (1,714.22) (2,334.03) (2,666.29) 流动比率 1.13 1.16 1.25 1.35 1.40 投资损失2,221.36 (396.65) (400.00) (400.00) (400.00) 速动比率 1.06 1.05 1.13 1.22 1.27 营运资金变动2,605.71 (13,334.90) 4,270.13 (3,342.03) 4,487.40 营运能力

其它(4,062.46) 4,015.72 170.94 184.37 196.52 应收账款周转率34.74 32.36 33.19 33.40 32.98 经营活动现金流14,859.95 16,358.54 30,953.55 26,264.45 37,407.83 存货周转率11.90 11.72 11.47 11.63 11.56 资本支出3,253.43 2,418.40 129.59 57.80 41.60 总资产周转率0.64 0.76 0.89 0.94 0.95 长期投资8.45 6.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 每股指标（元）

其他(22,508.44) (64,678.33) 460.18 743.82 (94.58) 每股收益 2.56 3.72 4.59 5.18 5.78 投资活动现金流(19,246.55) (62,253.46) 589.78 801.62 (52.98) 每股经营现金流 2.47 2.72 5.15 4.37 6.22 债权融资10,701.08 18,646.10 801.25 267.08 356.11 每股净资产8.95 10.90 12.70 14.77 17.08 股权融资4,938.09 (364.65) 1,508.29 2,373.42 2,689.56 估值比率

其他(21,390.73) (20,550.79) (35,225.66) (19,518.74) (21,168.84) 市盈率19.53 13.45 10.90 9.67 8.66 筹资活动现金流(5,751.56) (2,269.34) (32,916.12) (16,878.24) (18,123.16) 市净率 5.59 4.59 3.94 3.39 2.93 汇率变动影响0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EV/EBITDA 3.21 5.68 5.81 4.92 3.94 现金净增加额(10,138.16) (48,164.26) (1,372.79) 10,187.83 19,231.69 EV/EBIT 3.66 6.12 6.00 5.07 4.04 资料来源：公司公告，天风证券研究所