人民币升值对我国市场的影响

作者：。。。

指导老师：。。。

摘要:长期的国际收支双顺差产生了人民币升值的内外压力。长达l0多年的双顺差和外汇储备的持续快速增长带来内外两个方面的困境。一方面，中国人民银行由此处于两难的境地：国际收支中的“双顺差”特别是资本与金融账户的大规模顺差导致了中国外汇市场上过度的外汇供给，为了稳定汇率，中国人民银行必须急剧增加外汇储备，而外汇储备的增加必然会干扰货币供给量目标和经济稳定。因此，央行在增加外汇储备的同时不得不进行“对冲”政策。另一方面，在一国经济持续增长的环境中，只有固定汇率与国际收支双顺差互为条件，互为因果时，它们才能长期并存，如果一方不存在，则另一方也将不存在。再加上最近美国实行的量化宽松政策，更导致全球面临一场通胀，升值压力又增。对于人民币是否应该升值，两种声音争论不休。本文将针对人民币升值对我国市场的各方面影响进行综述。

关键词：人民币升值 原因 市场影响

Abstract：Long-term international payment surplus produced inside of RMB appreciation pressure. For l0 years of surplus and foreign exchange reserves continue rapid growth brings the plight of internal and external aspects. On the one hand, the people's bank of China thus in a no-win situation: the international payments "double surpluses" especially capital and financial account of large-scale surplus leads to China's foreign exchange market, in order to supply excessive foreign currency stable exchange rate, the people's bank of China must be dramatically increased foreign exchange reserves, and the increase in foreign reserves will interfere with monetary supply goals and economic stability. Therefore, the central bank increased foreign exchange reserves in the meanwhile had to undertake "hedge" policy. On the other hand, in one country to sustained economic growth environment, have fixed exchange rate and international payment surplus mutual conditions, reciprocal causation-the actual, they can coexist, if party a long-term does not exist, other one party will also does not exist. Plus the recent U.S. quantitative easing, the more cause global faces a inflation, upward pressure and increase. Whether for RMB appreciation, the two voices should debate. This paper will focus on our country market RMB appreciation review all aspects of the influence.

Key words: appreciation of the RMB cause market influence

一、人民币升值现状

⒈为何美国施压中国升值人民币？

中国人民银行行长周小川说：“汇率改革最开始参照，一揽子(货币)的成分多一点，然后随着发展供求关系（在汇率改革中）的决定作用就更多一点而供求