近30年中国水稻种植区域与产量时空变化分析(13)

5期刘珍环等：近30年中国水稻种植区域与产量时空变化分析693

andcropsuitabledata.Itappliedacross-entropymethodtoallocatethestatisticsdataofcrop

areaandproductiondowntosuchafinespatiallocation,suchasapixel.ThisresearchusestheSPAM-Chinamodeltogetaseriesofspatialdistributionsofriceareaandproductionwitha10-kmpixelatnationalscale,basedonlong-termcounty-andprovince-levelagriculturalstatisticssincetheearly1980s,andthen,analyzesthepatternofspatialandtemporalchanges.TheresultsshowthattherearesignificantchangesinriceinChinaduring1980-2010.Overall,morethan50%ofriceareadecreased,whilenearly70%ofriceproductionincreasedinthechangeregionduring1980-2010.Spatially,mostoftheincreasedareaandproductionwereinNortheastChina,especially,inJilinandHeilongjiang,mostofthedecreasedareaandproductionwerelocatedinsoutheasternChina,especially,inrapidlyurbanizedprovincesofGuangdong,FujianandZhejiang.Thus,thecentroidofriceareawasmovedtonortheastapproximately230kmsince1980,andriceproductionaround320km,whichmeansriceproductionmovesnortheastwardfasterthanriceareabecauseofthesignificantriceyieldincreaseinNortheastChina.Theresultsalsoshowthatriceareachangehasadecisiveimpactonriceproductionchange.Approximately54.5%oftheincreaseinriceproductionisduetotheexpansionofsownarea,whilearound83.2%ofthedecreaseinriceproductionisduetoshrinkageofricearea.Thisimpliesthatriceproductionincreasedmaybeduetoareaexpansionandothernon-areafactors,butreducedriceproductioncouldlargelybeattributedtoriceareadecrease.

Keywords:ricedistribution;spatialproductionallocationmodel;spatial-temporalchanges;China