铁道运输与经济 RAILWAY TRANSPORT AND ECONOMY

旅客运输

文章编号：1003-1421(2013)04-0061-03 中图分类号：U293.1+3；U293.5 文献标识码：B

基于非集计 模型的MNL 城际铁路需求预测

Forecast of Intercity Railway Demand based on Disaggregated MNL Model

李 莉，丁宏飞，李斯达

LI Li, DING Hong-fei, LI Si-da

（西南交通大学 交通运输与物流学院，四川 成都 610031）

(School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, Sichuan, China)

摘 要：在分析城际铁路客流预测常用方法的基础上，提出有效反映个人出行特征的城际铁路需求预测模型——非集计MNL模型。采用行为调查/意向调查(RP/SP)的出行调查数据对该模型的参数进行标定，并实现模型求解。以成渝通道为例，依据模型参数估计和客运量预测，探讨该预测方法的可操作性，根据个人的出行行为特征进行较为合理的出行预测。关键词：城际铁路；非集计模型；需求预测

Abstract: Based on analyzing the common forecast method of intercity railway passenger flow, this paper puts forward the forecast model of intercity railway demand—the disaggregated MNL model, which could effectively reflect the individual travelling characteristics. By using the travelling investigation data of RP/SP, the model parameter is demarcated and the model solution is realized. Taking Chengdu-Chongqing Corridor as example and according to the estimation of the model parameter and forecast of passenger transport volume, the paper discusses the maneuverability of the forecast method and takes reasonable travelling forecast according to the characteristics of individual travelling activities.

Key Words: Intercity Railway; Disaggregated Model; Demand Forecast