六普中国分年龄性别人数 2010年

从六普人口金字塔估计的2010中国分年龄性别人数

蔡泳 Yong Cai

Department of Sociology, UNC-Chapel Hill

Created on Oct 18, 2011, Updated on Jan 5, 2012

迄今为止，国家统计局只公布了六普人口年龄性别结构的几个大数。2011年7月出版的《2010年第六次全国人口普查主要数据》第13页提供了“历次普查人口金字塔”，其中包括根据六普数据绘制的单岁人口金字塔（见下图1）。利用绘图软件我们可以通过测量各年龄在金字塔中的相对长度来测算分性别年龄的人口数。

China has yet to release detailed age structure data from the 2010 census. In its publication titled “Major Figures on 2010 Population Census of China”, the National Bureau of Statistics of China provides a population pyramid from the 2010 census (See Figure 1 below). By measuring corresponding bar length in the graph, we can “recover” population’s sex age structure with reasonable accuracy.

1

图1. 中国2010普查人口金字塔1

Figure 1. Population Pyramid from China’s 2010 Census

《2010年第六次全国人口普查主要数据》第13页“历次普查人口金字塔”国务院第六次全国人口普查办公室 / 国家统计局人口和就业统计司 编。中国统计出版社，2011年7月。(Page 13 in “Pyramids from

th

Population Censuses” in Major Figures on 2010 Population Census of China, edited by the Office of the 6 National Population Census under the State Council and Population and the Labor Statistics Division of the National Bureau

of Statistics of China. China Statistical Press, July 2007.)

几点说明：

1. 该人口金字塔应该是用Excel软件绘制。

左为男，右为女，但左右不同高，而且左右标尺比例有微差（见下图2）。经测算男182个像素点代表0.4%，女189个像素点代表0.4%。

2. 测量估算步骤 （表1）：

a. 分别量算各性别年龄条的长度（像素

点数，表1第2列）

b. 根据男女不同比例尺对像素点数做微

调，推算各性别年龄的比例（表1第3列）。

c. 把各性别年龄比例加总，总数应该等

于100(%)，实际为100.85(%)。（表1第3列）

d. 根据加总的比例，重新加权，使总和

等于100%。（表1第4列）

e. 把普查所得全国总人口分配到各性别

年龄。（表1第5列）

3. 测算误差（具体见下表2）

最大的问题是而中青年少了200来万，老年人多了160多万。原因在于，该金字塔用Excel的条状图制作并加上了边框。在条本身较短的情况下（比方说老人），Excel的条和边很难精确区分。但测量误差占总人口的比例很小，在国家统计局公布具体数据以前，本估计可供参考。

Notes on Measurement:

1. The pyramid is likely created using Excel.

There is a small but noticeable difference in scale between male and female (Figure 2). It is estimated that, 182 pixels stand for 0.4% for males, and 189 pixels for females. 2. Steps taken in measuring (Table 1):

a. Measure bar length (number of pixels,

Table 1, Column 2).

b. Estimate each sex-age’s proportion of

total population according to its pixel size and scale (Table 1, Column 3).

c. Add up estimated proportion. The total

should be 100(%). The actual value is 100.85(%). (Table 1, Column 3)

d. Reweight estimated proportion to make

them add up to 100(%). (Table 1, Column 4)

e. Distribute census population total to

each sex-age group. (Table 1, Column 5)

3. Measurement Errors (Table 2).

A comparison of population figures based on this “recovered” sex age structure with the released census figures provides an assessment of accuracy. As shown in Table 2, the measurement errors are relatively small. The “recovered” sex age structure has about 2 million fewer in the age group of 15-59, but about 1.6 million more of 60+/65+, compared with the released figures. The discrepancies are largely due to difficulties in differentiating border from bar in population pyramid. Nevertheless, this “recovered” sex-age structure is useful for demographic analysis before NBS releases the official numbers.

图2. 图1中男女比例尺的细微差异

Figure 2. Small Difference between Male and Female in their Scales in Figure 1

表1. 根据六普人口金字塔估计的分年龄性别人数2

Table 1. Population by Sex and Age Estimated from Population Pyramid

(1) 年龄Age

(2) 像素点数Pixels 男M

女F

(3) 比例 Proportion 男M

女F

(4) 调整后比例 Adjusted Prop. 男M

女F

男Male

(5) 人口数 Population 女Female

总Total

1 2 257 295 291 227 253 253 0.565 0.648 0.640 0.480 0.535 0.535 0.560 0.643 0.634 0.476 0.531 0.531 7503281 8612715 8495932 6381952 7112924 7112924 13885232 15725639 15608856 3 283 250 0.622 0.529 0.617 0.525 8262367 7028581 4 283 249 0.622 0.527 0.617 0.523 8262367 7000467 5 276 242 0.607 0.512 0.601 0.508 8057998 6803666 6 276 242 0.607 0.512 0.601 0.508 8057998 6803666 7 252 220 0.554 0.466 0.549 0.462 7357302 6185151 8 257 223 0.565 0.472 0.560 0.468 7503281 6269494 9 266 235 0.585 0.497 0.580 0.493 7766041 6606866 10 271 238 0.596 0.504 0.591 0.499 7912020 6691209 11 269 229 0.591 0.485 0.586 0.481 7853628 6438180 12 285 254 0.626 0.538 0.621 0.533 8320759 7141038 13 281 254 0.618 0.538 0.612 0.533 8203976 7141038 14 292 264 0.642 0.559 0.636 0.554 8525128 7422182 15 328 303 0.721 0.641 0.715 0.636 9576171 8518640 16 335 319 0.736 0.675 0.730 0.669 9780541 8968469 17 371 356 0.815 0.753 0.808 0.747 10831584 1000 …… 此处隐藏：7269字，全部文档内容请下载后查看。喜欢就下载吧 ……