Climate Change and China Agricultural Sector

Climate Change and China’s Agricultural Sector:

An Overview of Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation

Issue Brief No. 5

J. Wang, J. Huang and S. Rozelle

May 2010

ICTSD-IPC Platform on Climate Change, Agriculture and Trade

International Centre for Tradeand Sustainable Development

Climate Change and China’s Agricultural Sector: An Overview of Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation

Climate Change and China’s Agricultural Sector: An Overview of Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation

By Jinxia Wang, Jikun Huang and Scott Rozelle

Jinxia Wang is Senior Researcher and Jikun Huang is Director at the Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Scott Rozelle is Senior Fellow, Food Security and Environment Program, Feeman Spogli Institute, Stanford University.

Issue Brief No. 5

International Centre for Tradeand Sustainable Development

iiICTSD - IPCClimate Change and China’s Agricultural Sector: An Overview of Impacts, Adaptation and MitigationPublished byInternational Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD)International Envrionment House 27 Chemin de Balexert, 1219 Geneva, SwitzerlandTel: +41 22 917 8492 Fax: +41 22 917 8093E-mail: ictsd@ictsd.ch Visit ICTSD’s website at: http://www.77cn.com.cnAndInternational Food & Agricultural Trade Policy Council (IPC)1616 P St., NW, Suite 100, Washington, DC 20036, USATel +1 202 328 5056 Fax +1 202 328 5133Visit IPC’s website at http://www.77cn.com.cnCharlotte Hebebrand, President/CEO of IPC, and Marie Chamay Peyramayou, Manager of the ICTSD Global Platform on Climate Change, Trade Policies and Sustainable Energy, are the persons responsible for this initiative. Acknowledgments:The authors would like to thank Christine St. Pierre, Charlotte Hebebrand, Christophe Bellmann, Marie Chamay Peyramayou and Samantha Derksen for comments on earlier versions of the paper.This paper was produced under The ICTSD Global Platform on Climate Change, Trade Policies and Sustainable Energy—an initiative supported by DANIDA (Denmark); Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland; the Department for

International Development (U.K.); the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Sweden; the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Norway; Oxfam Novib; and ICTSD’s institutional partners and project supporters such as the Commonwealth Secretariat, the Netherlands Directorate-General of Development Cooperation (DGIS), the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA); and the Inter American Development Bank (IADB).

IPC wishes to thank the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and all of its structural funders for their generous support.

ICTSD and IPC welcome feedback and comments on this document. These can be forwarded to Marie Chamay Peyramayou, mchamay@ictsd.ch and/or Christine St Pierre, stpierre@http://www.77cn.com.cn.

Citation: Wang, J., Huang, J., and Rozelle, S. Climate Change and China’s Agricultural Sector: An Overview of Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation, ICTSD–IPC Platform on Climate Change, Agriculture and Trade, Issue Brief No.5, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, Geneva, Switzerland and International Food & Agricultural Trade Policy Council, Washington DC, USA.

Copyright © ICTSD and IPC, 2010. Readers are encouraged to quote and reproduce this material for educational, non-profit purposes, provided the source is acknowledged.

The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of ICTSD and IPC or the funding institutions.

ISSN 2075-5856

ContentS

FoReWoRD veXeCUtIVe SUMMARY vii

1. IntRoDUCtIon 1

2. CLIMAte CHAnGe: oBSeRVeD eVIDenCe 3

3. IMPACtS oF CLIMAte CHAnGe on CRoP YIeLD AnD CRoPPInG SYSteMS: VIeWS FRoM nAtURAL SCIentIStS 4

3.1 Climate Change and Crop Yields 5

3.2 Climate Change Impacts on Cropping Systems 5

3.3 Climate Change Impacts on Livestock 6

4. IMPACtS oF CLIMAte CHAnGe on AGRICULtURAL PRoDUCtIon, PRICeS, tRADe, FooD SeCURItY AnD FARM InCoMe: VIeWS FRoM eConoMIStS 7

4.1 Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production 7

4.2 Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Prices 8

4.3 Impacts of Climate Change on Trade 8

4.4 Impacts of Climate Change on Grain Self-sufficiency 8

4.5 Impacts of Climate Change on Farmer Income 9

5. ADAPtIVe ReSPonSeS to CLIMAte CHAnGe MADe BY GoVeRnMentS AnD FARMeRS 11

5.1 Adaptive Responses—the Government 11

5.2 Progress on Implementation of Government Adaptation Strategies 11

5.3 Adaptive Responses—Farmers 12

6. GReenHoUSe GAS eMISSIonS AnD MItIGAtIon PoLICIeS In tHe AGRICULtURAL SeCtoR 14

6.1 Emissions from the Agricultural Sector 15

6.2 Mitigation Policies in the Agricultural Sector 15

6.3 Practical Mitigation Actions 17

7. ConCLUSIon 19ReFeRenCeS 21tABLeS AnD FIGUReS 24iiiICTSD - IPC

FoReWoRD

When both “climate change” and “China” are topics in the same discussion, the focus is typically on energy and manufacturing. While it receives considerably less attention, the agriculture sector is not an insignificant source of emissions. Agriculture accounts for more than 15 percent of China’s total greenhouse gas emissions, nearly 90 percent of nitrous oxide emissions, and 60 percent of methane emissions. Excessive fertilizer use is not only fueling a major portion of the nitrous oxide emissions but also is raising alarm about water pollution from agriculture. At the same time, however, there is opportunity for China’s agriculture sector to play a role in mitigating against climate change through carbon sequestration and adopting production methods that reduce emissions. In addition, the potential impact of climate ch …… 此处隐藏：45496字，全部文档内容请下载后查看。喜欢就下载吧 ……