2011年7月

魏艳旭等：基于技术进步的中国能源消耗与经济增长：前后两个30年的比较

EnergyConsumptionandEconomicGrowthinChinaDuetoTechnologicalProgress:AComparisonofTwoPhases

(1953-1977and1978-2009)

WEIYanxu,SUNGennian,LIJing

(CollegeofTourismandEnvironment,ShaanxiNormalUniversity,Xi’an710062,China)

Abstract:BasedonstatisticaldataofenergyconsumptionandGDPduringtheperiod1953-2009,

itcanbedividedintotwophases(1953-1977and1978-2009)accordingtotheindexofenergyconsumptionperunit.Then,therelationshipbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthwascompared.Resultsshowthatforthefirstphase,theenergyconsumptionpercapitagrewwithincreasingtheGDPpercapita.Whentheenergyconsumptionpercapitaincreasedfrom6.67tecto17.9tec,theelasticityofenergyconsumptiondecreasedfrom3.59to-0.58.Therelationshipbetweenthetwovariablesisnegativelycorrelated.Forthesecondphrase,withincreasingtheGDPpercapita,theenergyconsumptionpercapitagrewwithfluctuation.Whentheenergyconsumptionperunitdecreasedfrom17.5tecto5.05tec,theelasticityofenergyconsumptionfluctuatedmoregreatly.Theproblemofenergyconsumptioncanbetakenasanenvironmentalproblemasmoreenvironmentalproblemsarecausedbyenergyconsumption.Therefore,theImpactPopulationAffluenceTechnology(IPAT)ingtheIPATequation,energyconsumptionisdecomposedintothreeparts,i.e.,population,economy,andtechnology.Then,therelationthatthegrowthrateofenergyconsumptionisconcernedwiththegrowthrateofpopulation,economy,andtechnologyprogressisshown.Thegrowthrateofenergyconsumptionperunitcanbetakenastechnologyprogress.Withtechnologyprogress,thereasonwhytheenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthbetweenthetwophasesaredifferentwasanalyzed.Resultsshowthat1)therewasapositivecorrelationbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowthduring1953-1977duetotechnologicalprogress.Economicgrowthimprovesenergyconsumptionandenergyconsumptionpusheseconomicgrowth.However,duringtheperiod1978-2009,theeconomicgrowthwaslessdependentonenergyconsumptionandthegrowthofenergyconsumptionissuppressed.Technologicalchangeandprogressaretheprimaryreasonforthedifferencesbetweenthetwophases.2)Energyconsumptionperunitwasmarkedlydifferentbetweenthetwophases,whichmadeenergyconsumptiondecrease.3)AccordingtotheIPATequation,itismoreimportanttoimprovetechnologytoreduceenergyconsumptionasthenaturalpopulationgrowthratecannotbechangedinashorttime,anditisinfeasibletoreduceeconomicgrowthratesforChinatoreduceenergyconsumption.4)Asprojected,from1980or1990to2009,a33.7×109tecor23.7×109tecwassaved,whichisprimarilyduetotechnologicalprogress.DuringtheTwelfthFivePlans,theGDPpercapitawouldincreasefrom4531.0yuanto6297.4yuan.Theenergyconsumptionpercapitawouldincreasefrom2.27tecto2.98tec.

Keywords:Energyconsumption;Economicgrowth;Technicalprogress;Comparativestudy