业绩超预期,基本面 政策面双重驱动

图表 4: 盈利预测主要假设

营业收入

YoY growth

供应链运营业务

YoY growth房地产业务YoY growth其他业务YoY growth毛利润

毛利率销售费用

销售费用率管理费用

管理费用率财务费用投资收益有效税率

2010A 66,096

63.0% 59,986

73.9% 4,937

1.7% 1,173

-1.8% 5,161

7.8% (1,945)

2.9% (242)

0.4% (111) 86

25.2%2011E 83,09425.7% 74,459

24.1% 7,345

48.8% 1,290

10.0% 6,847

8.2% (2,355)

2.8% (319)

0.4% (226) 95

25.0%2012E 102,228

23.0% 92,633

24.4% 8,176

11.3% 1,419

10.0% 8,426

8.2% (2,908)

2.8% (381)

0.4% (227) 104

25.0%2013E 128,088

25.3% 115,494

24.7% 11,034

34.9% 1,561

10.0% 11,134

8.7% (3,657)

2.9% (477)

0.4% (233) 115

25.0%2014E 161,294

25.9% 144,298

24.9% 15,280

38.5% 1,717

10.0% 14,372

8.9% (4,620)

2.9% (604)

0.4% (215) 126

25.0%2015E 198,381

23.0% 180,646

25.2% 15,846

3.7% 1,889

10.0% 16,613

8.4% (5,690)

2.9% (716)

0.4% (189) 139

25.0%

资料来源：公司数据，中金公司研究部

资料来源：公司数据，中金公司研究部

图表 6: 贸易可比公司估值表

8.9237.2311.978.5326.5417.5111.523,0516,1002,6301,3351,2171,17556318.8149.627.824.154.027.839.843.526.625.355.310.115.06.68.09.111.410.234.031.711.468.125.716.539.416.526.830.332.521.537.915.018.19.810.310.718.723.523.038.28.942.115.410.433.613.615.227.130.818.330.48.97.16.77.67.48.915.025.018.97.233.316.66.326.210.19.921.624.716.325.47.55.85.85.75.98.07.420.716.84.34.92.92.010.23.22.08.43.04.88.51.61.41.11.61.80.90.61.42.83.3n.a.2.9n.a.8.1n.a.n.a.7.42.64.67.71.41.30.91.31.40.80.61.52.62.5n.a.n.a.n.a.6.4n.a.n.a.5.22.43.86.91.21.10.91.11.30.80.61.42.31.9n.a.n.a.n.a.5.0n.a.n.a.4.72.33.45.81.01.00.81.01.10.70.61.32.138%65%19%57%27%40%59% 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.1 1.0 0.3 0.2

建发股份* 五矿发展 中化国际 厦门国贸 江苏国泰 中大股份 东方创业 利丰

华润创业 WW GraingerFastenal Co三菱商事三井物产住友商事伊藤忠商事丸红株式会社丰田通商

双日株式会社Samsung C&T大宇国际集团600153 CH Equity600058 CH Equity600500 CH Equity600755 CH Equity002091 CH Equity600704 CH Equity600278 CH EquityRMBRMBRMBRMBRMBRMBRMB 22.9 29.0 27.9 26.7 3.2n.a.n.a.n.a. 11.1n.a.n.a.n.a. 11.3n.a.n.a.n.a. 20.4 19.0 21.3 22.6 13.4n.a.n.a.n.a. 5.5n.a.n.a.n.a. 21.6 26.0 20.7 23.9 11.4 12.7 8.0 9.5 20.5 15.8n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a. 5.0 10.1 22.2 20.8 9.6 7.5 10.0 13.5 14.8 4.4 2.6 7.2 7.0 23.0 24.4 13.3 16.2 13.1 14.2 17.8 8.6 3.4 5.9 13.3 22.9 26.9 14.7 18.0 14.0 17.1 20.2 9.1 7.6 6.6 13.2494 HK Equity291 HK EquityHKDHKD39.632.520,57810,02826% 0.83% 9.516%30%10%37%5%12%16%13%11%18%24% 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.2 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.2 0.7GWW US EquityFAST US Equity8058 JP Equity8031 JP Equity8053 JP Equity8001 JP Equity8002 JP Equity8015 JP Equity2768 JP Equity000830 KS Equity047050 KS EquityUSDUSDJPYJPYJPYJPYJPYJPYJPYKRWKRW144.268.62,2761,4641,1448395851,31115771,00039,15010,01410,11545,34831,43416,79415,60911,9365,4492,30710,1873,690资料来源：彭博资讯，中金公司研究部；注：*数据为中金预测，其他为市场预测数据，来自彭博资讯