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INVESTMENT BANKINGANDCAPITAL MARKETS

Market Report –Second Quarter 2004 Edition

New York, FrankfurtSeptember 1, 2004

THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Overview of Second Quarter 2004

Revenue Opportunities from Hedge Funds

Market Review

Corporate Finance and Advisory Fixed-Income Trading

Equity Trading

Data Definitions and Abbreviations

172429

Overview of Second Quarter 2004

INVESTMENT BANKING PROFITS DECLINED SHARPLY

The Industry Faces a Tough Second Half Unless Equity Trading Bounces Back

BCG investment banking performance index declined by 29 points to 99 in the second quarter 2004

However, second quarter results were still better than those of one year ago

In addition, results from the first half of 2004 were strong

While revenues from fixed income decreased significantly, most of the decline was seasonal

Revenues from fixed-income trading declined by 13.9% from previous quarter

Low market volatility hit earnings from equity trading hard

Equity trading revenues were 19.7% lower than levels three months ago

Corporate finance and advisory (CF&A) revenues improved across businesses, but the increase was not strong enough to compensate for lower trading revenues, which declined by 16.1% from the first quarter

CF&A revenues improved by 12.3% on average

BCG PERFORMANCE INDEX DECLINED SHARPLY IN SECOND QUARTER 2004, BUT WAS STILL HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR’S LEVELS

BCGInvestment BankingIndex

Performance Index

140

120

100

806040200

1Q/01

2Q/013Q/014Q/011Q/022Q/023Q/024Q/021Q/032Q/033Q/034Q/031Q/042Q/04

Note:The BCG IB performance index is calculated based on aggregate profits of 10 leading banks

BOND TRADING REMAINED STRONG WHILE EQUITIES

BUSINESSES SLOWED IN SECOND QUARTER 2004

Corporate Bond Origination

(1)

150

600

M&A Advisory100

400

200

001Q/01

3Q/01

1Q/02

3Q/02

1Q/03

3Q/03

1Q/04

1Q/01

3Q/01

1Q/02

3Q/02

1Q/03

3Q/03

1Q/04

U.S. Bond Trading(2)

Equity Trading

$B1200

$Tr10

1000880066004004

2002001Q/01

3Q/01

1Q/02

3Q/02

1Q/03

3Q/03

1Q/04

1Q/01

3Q/01

1Q/02

3Q/02

1Q/03

3Q/03

1Q/04

(1)Based on effective transactions(2)Daily average trading volumes for treasuries, agencies, asset-/mortgage-backed securities (ABS/MBS), and corporate bonds

INVESTMENT BANKING REVENUES AND PROFITS DECLINED

Q2/04 vs. Q1/04

50%

Pre-tax profitmargin (%)

40%

Q1/04 %

Ø: 35.0%

5.430%

–Q2/04 ØØ: 30.5%

20%

10%

0%0.5

1.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0

Revenues

($B)

Note:Øcalculated on a revenue-weighted basis; operating revenue for investment banking and institutional sales and trading

HOWEVER, RESULTS IN MOST CASES BETTER THAN LAST YEAR

Q2/04 vs. Q2/03

Pre-tax profit 50%

margin (%)

40%

Q2/04 0Ø: 30.5%

.130%

+ØQ2/03 Ø: 29.6%

20%

10%

0%0.5

1.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0

Revenues

($B)

Note: Øcalculated on a revenue-weighted basis; operating revenue for investment banking and institutional sales and trading

TRADING REVENUES DECLINED WHILE CORPORATE FINANCE

AND ADVISORY IMPROVED

Trading Revenues2Q/04 vs. 1Q/04

Tradingrevenue aspercentageof totalrevenues2Q/04

90%

Corporate Finance/Advisory Revenues 2Q/04 vs. 1Q/04

35%CF&A

revenue aspercentageof total

30%revenues

2Q/04

25%

85%80%75%70%

Ø: 75.2%

20%

Ø: 24.0%

65%60%55%

0.5

15%

1.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

Revenues

($B)

10%

0.2

0.40.60.81.01.2

Revenues

($B)

Note:Trading and corporate finance revenues don‘t total 100% because of “other”revenue

Revenue Opportunities from Hedge Funds

INVESTMENT BANKS NEED TO RETHINK THEIR CUSTOMER SERVICE AND COVERAGE MODELS FOR HEDGE FUNDS

Hedge funds are one of the most attractive customer groups for investment banks

Hedge funds are growing fast: Industry is expected to continue to grow by 16% annually

through 2005 Relatively stable fee levels in the hedge fund industry provide high-margin business

opportunities for investment banks

Hedge fund industry generates revenue opportunities along the value chain

We estimate that manufacturing, packaging and distribution produced $45 billion in

revenue and $15-20 billion in profit last year While servicing hedge funds across asset classes created revenueopportunities of

$14 billion and profit of $5-6 billion

Servicing the hedge fund community creates challenges for investment banks

Investment banks historically have operated and organized aroundproduct silos, while

many hedge funds require an integrated product and service offering across asset classesInvestment banks must rethink their customer service and coverage models. In particular, they should

Build cross-functional and cross-product sales forces Unbundle their service offerings, e.g., provide direct market access with low execution

support while providing trading algorithms and first-call research support

WORLDWIDE HEDGE FUND ASSETS EXPECTED

TO GROW TO $1.1 TRILLION BY 2005

Non-U.S. and Fund of Funds Growing Fastest

Global Hedge Fund Industry

Global Hedge Fund of Funds Industry

Assets

under1400

underMgmtMgmt800

($B)

1200

($B)

1000

600

800

400

6004002002000

2001

2003

2005

2001

2003

2005

Note: A U.S. hedge fund is defined as a U.S. limited partnershipor limited liability company. A hedge fund is defined as an entity that invests primarily in

HEDGE FUND MARKET ESTIMATED TO GENERATE

$60B IN REVENUE

Global Profit Pool in 2003 Exceeded $20B

$B (2003)

Note: Assumes 2% management fee; 20% performance fee; 10%-15% market return. Servicing revenues include all asset classes

CHANGING LANDSCAPE WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT FEE

LEVELS ALONG THE VALUE CHAIN

Overview

Mgmt fee: 1-3% Mgmt fee: 1-2% Load: 0-3%Perf. fee: 20-30%

Perf. fee: 10-20%Trailer: 0-0.5%

-plus selected expenses

-above a hurdle rate