中国印刷产业发展展望

2007年7月19日，上海/第八届印艺学者论坛 蒲嘉陵/北京印刷学院A View On Chinese Printing Industry and Its Development (1)Always asked questions; (2)A historical review; (3)Current status; (4)Future development; (5) The roadmap of development.

1. Always asked questions about Chinese printing industry1. How fast is it growing ? 2. How big is it ? 3. What stage of development is it at ? 4. What are planned for the future ? ----------------------------------------

2. A Historical Review: Gross Printing ProductionGross Printing Production (Billion RMB)300Puzzle: Which one is precise and true???200100 50Lucky: They are in similar trend!!!95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07Year

2. A Historical Review: Gross Printing ProductionGross Printing Production (Billion RMB)400310 Billions RMB in 2005300“Standard Curve”200100 50 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07Year

2. A Historical Review: Printing inks400Volumes (kilo tons)300Consumed Produced200100Imported0Exported95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07Year

2. A Historical Review: Printing inksData for 2006Consumed 370 Produced 355 Imported 47.7 Exported 3.32Unit: Kilo TonsThe 4th largest ink producer following USA, Japan and Germany

2. A Historical Review: Printing plates200Volumes (Million M2)150Produced PS Plate40Volume (Million M2) Volume (Million M2)10030 2050Exported PS Plate Imported PS Plate0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04Produced CTP Plate 100 070506Year

2. A Historical Review: Printing platesData for 2006Plate Type PS Plate CTP Plate Produced 180 17 Imported 0.6 4.3 Exported 41.0 1.2Unit: Million M2

2. A Historical Review: Paper & boardVolumes (Million Tons)605040Consumed Produced302095 969798990001020304050607Year

2. A Historical Review: Paper & board Data over the past 10 yearsYear Produced(Million Tons)1995 28.12 26.50 21.882000 30.50 35.75 28.342006 64.00 65.50 50.00Consumed(Million Tones)Consumed per Person (Kg)The second largest producer and consumer following USA

2. A Historical Review: Printing machinery30Value (Billion RMB)25Value (Billion Dollar) Value (Billion Dollar)202Consumed15 10Imported1Produced5Exported0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 0 07Year

2. A Historical Review: Printing machineryData for 2006Consumed 23.8 Produced 15.0 Imported 12.9 Exported 4.2Unit: Billion RMBHome–made machineries are improving in quality and increasing in output very fast, but high-end machineries still highly depend on import.

2. A Historical Review: Growth rate30Growth Rate (% per year)Print Production20Consumed Inks GDP Growth Rate Consumed Paper & board0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 0710Year

2. A Historical Review: Fast growing industry 1. Paper and ink markets (expressed in consumed volume) have been growing at an average speed of 11% , though fluctuating between 9% and 15%, over the past 5years; 2. Gross Printing Production (expressed in revenue) has been growing at speeds of more than 16% over the past 5years and accelerated by the fast growing economy. 3. The growth rate of Gross Printing Production is closely related with and much more sensitive to that of GDP.

3. Current Status: The industries in 20051. Printing Production: 310 Billion RMB (~US$ 38.3 Billion)Prepress 18.5 5.79 % Publication 75.0 24.19 % Newspaper 50.5 16.29 % Package 108.0 34.84 % Export 29.0 9.36 % Others 29.0 9.36 %2. Printing Material: 111 Billion RMB (~US$ 13.7 Billion)Paper and Cardboard 100.0 90.1 % Inks 6.0 5.4% Plates 4.0 3.6% Others 1.0 0.9%3. Printing Equipments: 21.3 Billion RMB (~US$ 2.6 Billion)Total: 442.3 Billion RMB (~US$ 54.6 Billion)Data Source: Printing and Equipment Industries Association of China (PEIAC)

3. Current Status: The industries in 2006Gross Printing Production: 380 Billion RMB (~US$48.7 Billion) (Annual growth rate: 22.6%)Business Form 150,4% Notebooks 125, 3% Others 390, 10% Prepress 205, 5%Publications 810, 21 %Export 360, 9%Package 1235, 34%Newspaper 525, 14%