Base Oil Market 2011Q3 Review

130/MT lower. As expected, the obvious downward trend convinced buyers to wait for further price corrections. Weak demand and high inventories continued to add downward pressure on base oil

markets. Market participants believed that the base oil market would only rebound when the economic situation would improve.

Group III prices in Europe were increasing in the first half of the year and have become stable since July. Producers confirmed that deals were done at €1,300-1,420/MT on FCA ARA basis in September. Only one producer stated that there were spot supplies in September, while other refineries had sold out their products until the end of the year.

In Europe, major suppliers for Group III base oils are ExxonMobil, Neste, S-Oil, SK Energy and Petronas. European annual demand for Group III is estimated at 2,500,000 MT/year while current output of European Group III refiners is slightly above 500,000 MT/year. New Group III facilities, The Pearl GTL project in Qatar (capacity of 1,000,000 MT/year) and Bahrain Neste project (capacity of 400,000 MT/year) in the Middle East are set to change the global Group III base oil supply structure. It is reported that the two new producers are still in the product analysis phase. Commercial production is believed to start in the fourth quarter.

Some traders believe that base oil prices will continue to fall as crude oil futures started trending downwards and lube blenders hold off on their purchases, contributing to more downward pressure. Falling Baltic prices are expected to continue to hammer the European base oil market. But refineries hold the opposite opinion that base oil prices could remain stable at current levels due to stable to rising prices of VGO, gas oil and crude oil. The expected rebound in lubricant demand after the holiday season would certainly support base oil prices.