Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2012, 1, 195-203 doi:10.4236/jwrr.2012.14027 Published Online August 2012 (/journal/jwrr.html)

The Method and Application of Water Vulnerability

Assessment in China*

Jianwu Weng1, Jun Xia1,2#, Junxu Chen1,3

2

Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Process, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan

3

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing

Email: {chap_weng, chenjunxu07}@, #xiajun6666@

Received: Feb. 28th, 2012; revised: Mar. 19th, 2012; accepted: Mar. 24th, 2012

1

Abstract: Water vulnerability research is the focus of water resources research recent days, and is an impor- tant method to assess the impact of natural and social-economic factors to the water resources systems, and also could be the basis of adaptation. In this paper, 8 indicators for water vulnerability were identified and categorized including the natural and social-economic factors. The weights of each indicator were calculated by the Analytic Hierarchy Process. The assessment was applied on China, and each province was one assess- ment unit. The result shows that south China has the lower water vulnerability, and the north China has the higher water vulnerability. The similar assessment results could be caused by various reasons. As the increase of water vulnerability, the social-economic indicators become overwhelming. According to the results, this paper has advanced some adaptations on improving the adaptive ability to climate change and water efficiency, applying the gross water utilization control, using new water resources and control the water pollution.

Keywords: Water Resources; Vulnerability Assessment; Indicator System; Climate Change; Adaptation

气候变化背景下水资源脆弱性评价方法及其应用分析*

翁建武1，夏 军1,2#，陈俊旭1,3

中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室，北京

2

武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室，武汉

3

中国科学院大学，北京

Email: {chap_weng, chenjunxu07}@, #xiajun6666@

收稿日期：2012年2月28日；修回日期：2012年3月19日；录用日期：2012年3月24日

1

摘 要：气候变化背景下水资源脆弱性与适应性是当前国内外水资源研究的热点问题之一。本文以中国省级行政区为评价单元，针对水资源供需矛盾问题，开展了气候变化背景下水资源脆弱性评价的指标系统与方法研究。与传统的水资源脆弱性评价不同，本文提出的脆弱性不仅考虑了自然干旱地理分布的脆弱性要素，同时考虑了社会经济和环境等方面的联系，选取了相关的8个指标，并利用层次分析法确定指标权重。初步研究表明，水资源脆弱性在南方地区较低，在北方地区较高；相同或相近的水资源脆弱性评价结果，可能是不同原因造成的；随着水资源脆弱性的增加，社会经济因素逐渐起主导作用。根据评价结果，本研究从提升应对气候变化适应能力、提高用水效率、实施用水总量控制、开发新水源和治理水污染等方面提出了相应的适应性对策。

关键词：水资源；脆弱性评价；指标体系；气候变化；适应性对策

基金项目：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目“气候变化对中国东部季风区陆地水循环与水资源安全的影响及适应对策”(编号：2010CB428406)。 #

通讯作者。

*

Copyright © 2012 Hanspub 195