基于随机规划的医院选址方法研究

上海交通大学

硕士学位论文

基于随机规划的医院选址方法研究

姓名：刁永浩

申请学位级别：硕士

专业：管理科学与工程

指导教师：江志斌

20090201

基于随机规划的医院选址方法研究

基于随机规划的医院选址方法研究

摘 要

医院选址是现代医院建设的关键问题。在医疗资源的分配中，某地区的医疗资源需求（就医人次数）带有不确定性。对随机因素的合理分析和处理能识别不确定性的程度和规律，从而为选址决策提供科学依据，这在现代医院的选址方法中越来越重要。而现有的医院选址的模型和方法，都是静态的确定性模型，不能全面地分析医院选址规划中的随机因素。本文针对选址问题中存在的就医人数 (地区内就医需求) 随机性的特点，提出了基于随机规划的现代医院选址方法。

本文首先建立了带有随机参数的医院选址整数规划模型。该模型考虑了医院附近不同人口分布点的每月就医人次数、交通状况以及病人对不同级别医院的偏好因素，以约束条件和参数的形式表现。并引入月就医人次数这一服从某概率分布的随机参数，采用最小化地区内人口与医疗资源间的权重距离总和为目标函数。

接着利用蒙特卡罗仿真方法对随机参数进行模拟，提出了医院选址的蒙特卡罗算法，利用数值实验实现算法并体现其收敛性以及相对于确定性模型的优势。 然后提出第二种处理随机参数的方法：基于场景分析的随机规划。采用多个以发生概率相联系的预测场景来模拟地区就医需求的不确定性，并利用实际案例证明基于场景分析的算法的收敛性。

本文中的数值运算实验均采用Visual C++调用CPLEX编程实现。

关键词：医院选址，随机规划，蒙特卡罗模拟，场景分析

*本文研究工作受到上海交通大学重大项目培育基金项目“现代医院资源优化配置与管理关键技术及集成平台的研究”资助。

基于随机规划的医院选址方法研究

A STOCHASTIC PROGRAMMING BASED APPROACH FOR HOSPITAL LOCATION PLANNING

ABSTRACT

Hospital location planning is crucial to modern hospital construction. In the health care resource allocation process the demand of health care resource is often stochastic. The way of dealing with this uncertainty has raised increasing focus in location planning researches. Current hospital location planning methods are mostly static deterministic models and therefore can not fully explore the random feature of the problem. This research paper discusses the stochastic characteristic of parameter (health care demand: monthly visits) and proposes a stochastic programming based method to deal with the problem of hospital site selection.

In Chapter 3 an integer programming model with stochastic parameter is proposed. Various factors such as traffic condition, patients’ preference, etc. are taken into consideration. Stochastic parameter, monthly number of hospital visits, is introduced, with the objective of minimizing total weighted distance between population and health care resources.

In Chapter 4, Monte Carlo method is used to simulate stochastic parameter, and results based on numerical test prove good convergence of the Monte Carlo algorithm, as well as its advantage compared to deterministic model. In the following chapter scenario-analysis based method is proposed to simulate the stochastic parameter. Consideration is made on several discrete monthly visits scenarios with associated probabilities to determine the location plan for new general hospital under capacity constraints, convergence of the algorithm is proved by numerical experiments. The numerical experiments are realized using Visual C++ and CPLEX.

KEY WORDS: Hospital location planning, stochastic programming, Monte Carlo simulation, scenario analysis

基于随机规划的医院选址方法研究

图片目录

图1 医院选址问题AHP模型························································································12 图2 Voronoi图选址方法·································································································16 图3 随机变量出现在约束函数中的随机规划框架图··················································21 图4 专家打分法确定偏好参数α值············· …… 此处隐藏：9279字，全部文档内容请下载后查看。喜欢就下载吧 ……