研究生招生制度研究 - 学位认证

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Pre-reading Activities

Before reading the passage, try to answer the following questions.

1. Do you know anything about China’s exports?

2. What are the most popular products exported from China to the world?

What’s So Special about China’s Exports?1 The phenomenal performance of China constitutes the great economic miracle of the last quarter century. China’s economy has expanded by leaps and bounds, at historically unprecedented rates that few economists would have found plausible or feasible ex ante. More importantly, this growth has lifted hundreds of millions of people from poverty and has helped improve health, education, and other social standards. China has accomplished all this using its own brand of experimental gradualism — increasingly relying on markets and on price signals, yet until very recently doing so within the boundaries of a highly unorthodox set of institutions. That trade has played a significant role in this transformation is beyond dispute. China would likely have grown even if the global economy had been closed. And the very early stages of Chinese growth, based on rural reform, did not in any significant way rely on global markets. But from the mid-1980s on, one must suppose that China’s growth was fueled and sustained by the opportunities that the world market offered. We can see the increasing footprint of foreign trade and investment in all the major aggregates. The share of exports in GDP rose from virtually nothing in the

研究生招生制度研究 - 学位认证

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1960s to close to 30 percent in 2003, a rate of increase that is much larger than what has been experienced elsewhere in the world (see Figure 1). Inward direct foreign investment has risen from close to zero in the early 1980s to around 5 percent of GDP. The flip side of these figures is that China has become one of the world’s biggest trading powers, accounting for

6% of global trade flows (Figure 2).

Figure 1

Source: World Development Indicators Database

Figure 2

Source: World Development Indicators Database

The success with which China has integrated itself into the world economy raises many questions. Drawing the real lessons from this experience is important, not only because China is the stellar example which other developing countries are trying

研究生招生制度研究 - 学位认证

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The task is not made easier by the highly unconventional manner in which China has achieved its global integration. The standard list of recommendations for countries pursuing this goal includes: dismantling quantitative restrictions on imports, reducing import tariffs and their dispersion, making the currency2 convertible for current account transactions, eliminating bureaucratic red tape and other impediments to direct foreign investment, improving customs procedures, and establishing the rule of law. Measured by these guidelines, China’s policies resemble more those of a country that messed up big time than those of a country that became a formidable competitive threat in world markets to rich and poor countries alike. In brief, China opened up very gradually, and significant reforms lagged behind growth (in exports and overall incomes) by at least a decade or more. While monopoly state trading was liberalized relatively early (starting in the late 1970s), what took its place was a complex and highly restrictive set of tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and licenses. These were not substantially relaxed until the early 1990s.

Table 1 shows the trend for import tariffs: In the early 1990s, tariffs still averaged above 40 percent, with significant dispersion and a maximum rate above 200%. While the home market was highly protected, the penalizing effect of these tariffs on export production was neutralized through duty drawbacks and other incentives for export oriented investment projects. Currency markets were not unified until 1994.

Table 1 China’s import tariffs

average average (st. dev) Source: Pradad (2004) , p.10.

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China is not a simple story of specialization according to comparative advantage4. While labor intensive5 exports (toys, garments, simple electronics assembly) have always played an important role in China’s export basket, China also exports a wide range of highly sophisticated products. Indeed, a major argument of this paper is that China is an outlier in terms of the overall sophistication of its exports: Its export bundle is that of a country with an income-per-capita6 level three times higher than China’s. China has somehow managed to latch on to advanced, high-productivity products that one would not normally expect China to produce, let alone export. I will provide some evidence below that suggests this has been an important contributor to China’s recent growth. China’s experience indicates that it is not how much you export, but what you export that matters.

The extent to which China’s sophisticated export basket has been a direct consequence of its unorthodox policy regime is not clear. But it is not too much of a stretch to imagine that China’s industrial structure has indeed been shaped by policies of promotion and protection, just as in the cases of earlier East Asian tigers7. I will return to this theme at the end of the paper, and offer some general remarks that may help frame future policy decisions in the general areas of trade and industrialization.

New Words

plausible a.

feasible a.

ex ante a.

gradualism n.

unorthodox a.

fuel v.

sustain v. 有道理的；可信的 可行的；行得通的 事前, 根据经济上预期变化的 （社会改革上的）渐进主义，渐进主义政策 非正统的；非传统的；不正规的 增加；加强 使保持；使稳定持续

总数；合计

几乎；差不多；事实上；实际上

轻率的

优秀的；精彩的；杰出的

努力赶上；同……竞争

（逐渐）废除，取消

数量的；量化的；与数量有关的 aggregate n. virtually ad. flip a. stellar a. emulate v. dismantle v. quantitative a.

研究生招生制度研究 - 学位认证

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dispersion n.

convertible a.

bureaucratic a.

impediment n.

formidable a. 分散；散开；散布 可改变的；可转换的；可兑换的 官僚主义的 妨碍；阻碍；障碍 可怕的；令人敬畏的；难对付的

monopoly n. 垄断

liberalize v. 放宽对……的限制

penalize v.

neutralize v.

incentive n.

sophisticated a.

outlier n.

bundle n.

regime n. 处罚；惩罚 使无效；中和 激励；刺激；鼓励 （机器、体系等）复杂巧妙的；精密的 离开本体的部分；分离物 一批（同类事物或商品） 组织方法；管理体制

Phrases

by/in leaps and bounds

rely on 非常迅速；突飞猛进；大量地 依靠，依赖

account for 占（百分比）

integrated into 使合并，成为一体

mess up 把……弄糟；胡乱地做

lag behind 落后；落后于

in terms of

latch on to 就……而论；在……方面；由……观点 变得依附于 let alone 更不用说

Notes

1. 本文节选自哈佛大学Dani Rodrik教授发表的论文。这篇论文是美国国家经

济研究会（National Bureau of Economic Research）的工作论文，是为一个名为“中国和全球经济2010”的研究项目准备的，发表于2006年1月。

2. currency：通货，一个国家的货币。可兑换通货指一个国家能够与他国货币

互换的那一部分货币。

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3. bureaucratic red tape：官僚主义的繁文缛节，或繁琐的手续。主要是指官僚

主义繁琐、拖拉的办事手续和作风。办一件事情要呈文经过许多机构审批，盖上许多公章。

4. comparative advantage：比较优势。一个国家在生产某一种物品的机会成本比

別国低时，那个国家在生产这种物品上便拥有比较优势。这一概念由David Ricardo 提出。

5. labor intensive：劳动密集型的

6. income-per-capita：人均国民收入（national income per capita/per capita national

income）。人均国民收入水平是衡量一国的经济实力和人民富裕程度的一个重要指标, 是综合地反映一国经济发展水平、经济实力、人民生活水平的重要标志。

7. East Asian tigers：东亚“四小虎”是指泰国、马来西亚、印度尼西亚和菲律

宾四国。这四个国家的经济在20世纪90年代都像20世纪80年代的亚洲“四小龙”（韩国、新加坡、中国香港、中国台湾）一样突飞猛进，因而得名。

Ⅰ Decide whether the following statements are True (T) or False (F)

according to the passage.

( ) 1．China’s economy has expanded at historically unprecedented rates that

few economists would have found plausible or feasible.

( ) 2．Unfortunately, the growth of China’s economy has neither bailed hundreds

of millions of people out of poverty nor improve health, education, and

other social standards.

( ) 3．From Figure 1 we can tell that the share of exports in GDP rose from

almost nothing in the 1960s to close to 30 percent in 2003, a rate of

increase that is much larger than what has been experienced elsewhere in

the world.

( ) 4．From various kinds of figures we can say that China has become one of

the world’s biggest trading powers.

( ) 5．A complex and highly restrictive set of tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and

licenses were not substantially relaxed until the early 1980s.

( ) 6．While labor intensive exports have always played an important role in China’s export, China also exports a wide range of highly sophisticated

研究生招生制度研究 - 学位认证

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products.

Ⅱ Interpretation of words and phrases: look at the way the italicized words

and phrases are used in the passage. Try to decide on the best interpretation from the choices given.

1．China’s economy has expanded by leaps and bounds, at historically

unprecedented rates…

A．comprehensively

B．suddenly

C．quickly and successfully

2．China’s growth was fueled and sustained by the opportunities that the world

market offered.

A．stimulated…suspended

B．stimulated…maintained

C．oiled…continued

3．The standard list of recommendations for countries pursuing this goal includes:

dismantling quantitative restrictions on imports…

A．abolishing

B．assembling

C．shattering

4．…making the currency convertible for current account transactions,…

A．acceptable

B．exchangeable

C．available

5．China’s policies resemble more those of a country that messed up big time than

those of a country that…

A．messed in

B．set up

C．muddled up

6．China opened up very gradually, and significant reforms lagged behind

growth…

A．fell behind

B．hung back

C．restricted

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7．…the penalizing effect of these tariffs on export production was neutralized

through duty drawbacks and other incentives for…

A．long-term…compromised

B．punishing…cancelled out

C．punishing…comforted

8．China also exports a wide range of highly sophisticated products.

A．complicated

B．difficult

C．refined

9．China is an outlier in terms of the overall sophistication of its exports.

A．in advance of

B．with regard to

C．concerning

10．China has somehow managed to latch on to advanced, high-productivity

products that…

A．understand

B．produce

C．be dependent on

Ⅲ Fill in the blanks with words or phrases from the list given below. Change

the form if necessary. emulate regime formidable let alone impediment neutralize integrate

1．It is just not ______________ to manage the business on a part-time basis.

2．She hopes to ______________ her sister’s sporting achievements.

3．The level of inflation is a serious _______________ to economic recovery.

4．The two players together make a _______________ combination.

5．Our tax ______________ is one of the most favourable in Europe.

6．The latest figures should ________________ the fears of inflation.

7．They have not made any effort to _____________ with the local community.

8．There is not enough room for us, __________________ any guests.

研究生招生制度研究 - 学位认证

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Ⅳ Translate the following sentences into Chinese.

1．China’s economy has expanded by leaps and bounds, at historically

unprecedented rates that few economists would have found plausible or feasible ex ante.

_____________________________________________________________

2．China has accomplished all this using its own brand of experimental

gradualism—increasingly relying on markets and on price signals, yet until very recently doing so within the boundaries of a highly unorthodox set of institutions.

______________________________________________________________

3．But from the mid-1980s on, one must suppose that China’s growth was fueled

and sustained by the opportunities that the world market offered.

______________________________________________________________

4．Drawing the real lessons from this experience is important, not only because

China is the stellar example which other developing countries are trying to emulate, but also because the shape of China’s own future policies depend (or should depend) on these lessons.

______________________________________________________________

5．The task is not made easier by the highly unconventional manner in which

China has achieved its global integration.

______________________________________________________________

6．The standard list of recommendations for countries pursuing this goal includes:

dismantling quantitative restrictions on imports, reducing import tariffs and their dispersion, making the currency convertible for current account transactions, eliminating bureaucratic red tape and other impediments to direct foreign investment, improving customs procedures, and establishing the rule of law.

______________________________________________________________

7．In brief, China opened up very gradually, and significant reforms lagged

behind growth (in exports and overall incomes) by at least a decade or more. ______________________________________________________________

8．While labor intensive exports (toys, garments, simple electronics assembly)

have always played an important role in China’s export basket, China also exports a wide range of highly sophisticated products.

______________________________________________________________

研究生招生制度研究 - 学位认证

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9．But it is not too much of a stretch to imagine that China’s industrial structure

has indeed been shaped by policies of promotion and protection, just as in the cases of earlier East Asian tigers.

______________________________________________________________

Ⅴ Read the last three paragraphs of Professor Dani Rodrik’s paper on

China’s export issues and write a 100-150 words summary of his three implications.

I close with three set of implications for Chinese policymakers. The first has to do with the need to understand better the fundamental underpinnings of China’s export performance and its economic success. China’s pattern of production and exports would have looked very different if the traditional forces of comparative advantage, pushing China to specialize in labor-intensive products “appropriate” to low income economies, were the sole determinant. Instead, China has ended up with an export basket that is significantly more sophisticated than what would be normally expected. Government policies have helped nurture domestic capabilities in consumer electronics and other advanced areas that would most likely not have developed in their absence. Whatever static inefficiency costs may have been engendered in the process, this has had favorable implications for China’s growth.

The second implication has to do with the sustainability of China’s export- oriented growth. The question here is whether, with exports-to-GDP so high and rising, the Chinese growth model is inevitably running out of steam. The ideas developed in this paper teach us that what matters for China’s future growth is not the volume of exports or its relation to GDP, but the “quality” of these exports. Indeed, what is so special about China’s exports is not that they are voluminous or that its large pool of labor gives it a huge labor cost advantage. What stands out is that China sells products that are associated with a productivity level that is much higher than a country at China’s level of income. The economically relevant question for sustainability is not whether trade-GDP can keep on rising, but whether China will manage to latch on to higher- and higher-income products over time, and continue to fuel its growth thereby. Everything else being the same, this is something that is likely to slow down growth.

This brings us to the third point, having to do with the nature of future industrial policies. A clear implication of this paper is that China’s industrial policies—however