The Future of the Asset Management Industry

资产管理行业的未来

Global Asset Management

The 11th China Investment Fund International Forum

The Future of the Asset Management IndustryKai Sotorp Head of Asia Pacific, UBS Global Asset Management

December 2, 2012

资产管理行业的未来

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The old way: Remember the 1990’s? The 1990’s were good times for investors and the asset management industry then was less complex than it is today

Those were the days

Thin tails

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资产管理行业的未来

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A new game calls for new rulesRules of thumb you developed in the 90s don’t hold now The old rules Allocate to equities as much as risk budget would tolerate Investors to wait for markets to"come their way“ Pick managers who perform well in their specialist asset class (outperform the benchmark) The new rules Equity investments can lose money over a decade or more Bonds are not risk free Liquidity can not be taken for granted Investors care about liquidity and limiting losses (can’t stomach volatility)

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资产管理行业的未来

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Drivers of change– sources of market growth Looking forward, economic growth in the developed world is likely to be low Emerging markets, esp. China, seem certain to play a bigger role in the industry’s future than they have done in its history to date, just as they account for a growing share of global GDPTwo worldsUS Economic Size& Growth as Major Emerging Markets3,000 Absolute GDP growth (USDbn), 2011-14 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Brazil 0 0% 5% 10% 15% MENA India Russia Size of economy, 2014 China US

GDP CAGR (%), 2011-14

Source: IMF, April 20123

资产管理行业的未来

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Drivers of change - demographics The key demographic phenomenon for the asset management industry is the aging of the baby boomer generationTwo generations

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Drivers of change - demographicsDemographic demolition?Equity price earning ratio and the ratio of middle aged to older cohorts in the population United Kingdom30 P/E Ratio Trend of P/E Ratio M/O Ratio (rhs) M/O projection (rhs) 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 15 1.9 10 1.7 1.5 5 1.3 0 1.1 5 0 0.6 15 10 1.1 1.6 25 2.1 20

United States35 30 P/E Ratio Trend of P/E Ratio M/O Ratio (rhs) M/O projection (rhs)

25

2.6

20

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch indices, United Nations, UBS Global Asset Management, data as at 3 September 2012 Note: The M/O ratio is the ratio of population aged 35-49 to population aged 60-69.

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资产管理行业的未来

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Drivers of change– equity economicsThe end of the 'Great Moderation'US real GDP growth and volatility5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -41950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

Great Moderation9 8 3-year Volatility of GDP Growth (%) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Volatility (rhs) Real GDP Growth (lhS)

Data as of 31 December 2011 Source: UBS Global Asset management, US Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis

QoQ% Change

US-I (RU)

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资产管理行业的未来

Drivers of change– fixed income economics Traditional sources of income remain under pressureInterest rate/yield (%) Inflation above European Central Bank 9.0 target

Bank rates remain at historic lows Government bond and corporate bond yields near record lows Dividend yields rising from low levels

8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

ECB Base Rate Eurozone Inflation 10 yr EMU Benchmark Gov Yield Iboxx€ Corps Eurostoxx Dividend Yield

-1.0 -2.0 Dec- May- Sep08 09 09Source: Bloomberg, DataStream and ONS. Note: As at 31 August 2012

Jan10

Jun10

Oct10

Feb11

Jun- Nov- Mar11 11 12

Jul12

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资产管理行业的未来

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Drivers of change– theories challenged and revamped The asset management industry is being forced to rethink the investment world in light of events Assumptions of dominant investment theories are being challenged.

Assumptions of CAPM& MPT Investor are rational Can trade without transaction costs and without influencing the price of the assets Can lend and borrow unlimited amounts at risk-free rate of interest Normal distribution of investment returns Correlations between asset classes are fixed and constant forever Levels of returns and volatility in future will be similar to those observed in the past

The Reality The bursting of the dotcom bubble was a reminder that investor can be driven by collective mania After Lehman’s collapse, market participants suffered from disappearance of liquidity and from spiking transaction costs …… 此处隐藏：4576字，全部文档内容请下载后查看。喜欢就下载吧 ……