基于风险分析的危险品运输路径优化方法研究

河北工业大学

硕士学位论文

基于风险分析的危险品运输路径优化方法研究

姓名：潘瑞民

申请学位级别：硕士

专业：企业管理

指导教师：康凯

20100501

河北工业大学硕士学位论文

基于风险分析的危险品运输路径优化方法研究

摘要

随着我国经济的快速发展，对危险品的需求量与日俱增，给人类健康和社会环境安全带来了极大的挑战。2009年，在国家良好政策支持下，销售汽车1364.5万辆，同比增长46.15％。机动车辆的增加，无疑加大了危险品在公路运输过程中的运输风险。危险品运输车辆一旦发生泄漏事故，可能造成不可挽回的灾难性损失。所以，采取科学的方法和手段来保证危险品的安全运输，能够有效的提升社会公共安全。

本文从危险品运输风险分析入手，概括总结了国内外危险品运输路径优化方法研究现状和发展趋势，分析了我国危险品运输事故发生的主要原因及影响我国危险品运输的主要风险因素。并在此基础上，将高斯烟羽模型成功的应用于危险品扩散范围上。充用考虑到了危险品发生泄漏事故时，风向及风速在短时间内对附近居民及环境带来的影响。

在路径优化方面，提出了将多目标优化方法转化为单目标的优化方法，在路径不算多的小型路网中，给出了精确的求解方法。在危险品运输路径优化方法的研究基础上，结合实际危险品运输情况，提出并建立了两种全新的模型，即多路径可选风险分散模型和多卸货点风险递减模型。在多路径可选风险分散模型中，将蚂蚁算法应用于路径优化过程中，在一般蚂蚁算法的基础上进行了适当的改进，通过对蚂蚁算法的参数控制，使其符合危险品运输伴随风险的特征。适用于路径及结点较多，危险品运输量较大的中大型路网中，并起到了风险分散的作用。在多卸货点风险递减模型中，充分考虑到了危险品运输车辆的实际承载量对运输风险带来的影响，结合实际运输中的多需求点危险品运输情况，提出了二次建模的思想，提升了算法精度的同时，也在一定程度上减轻了算法难度。

最后，以天津市红桥区为例，在高斯烟羽扩散模型的基础上引入了个人风险。在实际路网中，针对不同的运输情况，分别采用本文提及的三种模型，进行了实例研究。研究表明：将高斯烟羽扩散模型引入危险品运输的个人风险评估中是有效、符合现实情况的；多路径可选路径优化方法研究及多卸货点的路径优化研究，达到了风险分散的目标，具有一定的现实意义。可为危险品运输相关政府监管部门、危险品运输物流企业及相关研究机构提供理论支持。

关键词： 危险品 风险分析 路径优化 风险分散 运输路径

基于风险分析的危险品运输路径优化方法研究

OPTIMIZATION METHODS BASE ON RISK ANALYSIS IN HAZARDOUS MATERIALAS TRANSPORTATION

ABSTRACT With China's rapid economic development, increasing demand on the hazardous materials, a great challenge brought to environment, human health and the safety of the community. 2009, with the government support, the number of sales of automotive has reached 13,645,000, with an increase of 46.15%. Vehicle fleet, no doubt increased in the road transport of hazardous materials during transport risks. The vehicles in case of leakage accident, catastrophic loss may be irreversible. So, take the scientific method and means to ensure the safe transport of hazardous materials, can effectively upgrade the public safety. This paper start with the risk analysis for transport of hazardous materials, summed up the domestic and international transport of hazardous materials route optimization status and development trend of China in recent years occurred in the transport of hazardous materials incidents were analyzed in the transport of hazardous materials and the main reason for the accident affect transport of hazardous materials in China the main risk factors. And on this basis, the Gaussian plume model was successfully applied to the spread of hazardous materials. Fully take into account the leakage of hazardous materials accident, wind direction and speed in a short time to nearby residents and environmental impact.

In route optimization, the proposed multi-objective optimization methods into a single objective optimization method, in a network with few paths and less nodes, the method gives an accurate solution method. Based on the study of hazardous materials transport optimization method and actual conditions, the paper proposes and establishes two new models, which is multi-path model with alternative risk and decreasing the risk of multiple demand points model. ants algorithm is applied to the optional in the multi-path dispersion model, through the right ant algorithm parameter control, based on general ant algorithm is improved properly, to meet the characteristic of hazardous materials transportation. Applied to the path and junction more hazardous materials transport with a large amount in the larger network. Discharge point in the lot of the risk of decreasing model, fully taking into account the

河北工业大学硕士学位论文

actual transport of hazardous materials vehicles, the risk of carrying capacity on the impact of transport, combined with the actual needs of the transport situation in the multi-point transport of hazardous materials, made a second model of thinking improve the algorithm accuracy is also to some extent, reduce the difficulty of the algorithm. Finally, in Hongqiao District, Tianjin, with our university stay in, using the Gaussian plume diff …… 此处隐藏：12337字，全部文档内容请下载后查看。喜欢就下载吧 ……