A Simple Model of monetary policy and currency crisis(3)

A Simple Model of monetary policy and currency crisis

shulrgrqh1Khqfh/gxulqjshulrgrqh/vrphyduldeohv/vxfkdvwkhqrplqdoh{fkdqjhudwhdqgwkhqrplqdolqwhuhvwudwh/zloodgmxvwzklohsulfhvduhsuhvhwiruwkhhqwluhshulrg16Wkhuhlvdvlqjohwudghdeohjrrgdqgsxufkdvlqjsrzhu

e

sdulw|+SSS,krogvh{dqwh/l1h1 |'.|iru|' c2/zkhuh |lvwkhgrphvwlf

e

sulfh/.|wkhh{shfwhgqrplqdoh{fkdqjhudwh+wkhsulfhriiruhljqfxuuhqf|lqwhupvrigrphvwlffxuuhqf|,dwwkhehjlqqlqjrishulrg|/dqgwkhiruhljqsulfhlvfrqvwdqwdqghtxdowrrqh1Gxulqjshulrg|' /krzhyhu/wkhuhpd|ehh{0srvwghyldwlrqviurpSSSdvduhvxowridqxqdqwlflsdwhgvkrfn17Wkhvhghyldwlrqvsod|dfuxfldourohlqwkhdqdo|vlv1Wkhuhlvixoofdslwdoprelolw|dqgxqfryhuhglqwhuhvwsdulw|krogv18

Wkhhfrqrp|lvsrsxodwhge|lghqwlfdohqwuhsuhqhxuvzkridfhfuhglwfrq0vwudlqwvzklfksuhyhqwwkhpiurperuurzlqjdqglqyhvwlqjpruhwkdqdpxo0wlsohriwkhlufxuuhqwuhdozhdowk+uhwdlqhghduqlqjvrufdvk0 rz,`|/lqwkhvslulwriEhuqdqnhdqgJhuwohu+4<;<,19Hqwuhsuhqhxuv*zhdowklvwkhuhiruhwkhixqgdphqwdoyduldeohwkdwghwhuplqhvlqyhvwphqwdqgrxwsxw1Hqwuhsuhqhxuvfdqeruurzlqgrphvwlffxuuhqf|iurpgrphvwlffrqvxphuvrulqiruhljqfxu0uhqf|iurpiruhljqohqghuv1Frqvxphuvqhhgprqh|iruwkhluwudqvdfwlrqvdqgwkhuhlvdfhqwudoedqnwkdwfdqdowhulqwhuhvwudwhvruwkhh{fkdqjhudwhe|d hfwlqjprqh|vxsso|1Lqwklvvkruwsdshuzhirfxvrq h{leohh{fkdqjhudwhv1

Wkhwlplqjrihyhqwvfdqehvxppdul}hgdviroorzv= uvwwkhsulfh lvsuhvhwdqg upvlqyhvw>wkhqdqxqdqwlflsdwhgvkrfnrffxuviroorzhge|dprqhwdu|dgmxvwphqwzklfkghwhuplqhvwkhfxuuhqwqrplqdolqwhuhvwudwhdqgwkhh{fkdqjhudwh>vxevhtxhqwo|/shulrg4*vrxwsxwdqgsur wvduhjhqhudwhgdqg upv*ghewvduhuhsdlg1Ilqdoo|/diudfwlrqE k riqhwuhwdlqhghduqlqjvdiwhughewuhsd|phqw/qdpho|`2/lvvdyhgirulqyhvwphqwlqshulrg51

Wkhuhpdlqlqjsduwriwklvvhfwlrqlvrujdql}hgdviroorzv1Vhfwlrq515ghvfulehvwkhprqhwdu|vlghriwkhhfrqrp|1Zhsrlqwrxwwkdwh{shfwhguhdorxwsxwlqshulrg5/t2/lq xhqfhvwkhqrplqdoh{fkdqjhudwhlqshulrg4/. 1Wklvuhodwlrqvklslvvxppdul}hge|dfxuyhzklfkzhuhihuwrdvwkhLSOP0+ru

Wkhdvvxpswlrqwkdwsulfhvduhsuhvhwirurqhshulrglvfrpprqo|pdghlqprqhwdu|prghovridqrshqhfrqrp|/iroorzlqjRevwihogdqgUrjr +4<<8,17

Surgxfhuvvhwsulfhvlqgrphvwlffxuuhqf|e|wdnlqjwkhiruhljqsulfh+dgmxvwhge|wkhh{shfwhgh{fkdqjhudwh,dvjlyhq18

Rxudqdo|vlvfdqehhdvlo|h{whqghgwrwkhfdvhzkhuhlqwhuhvwudwhsdulw|grhvqrwkrogvwulfwo|19

Djklrq/Edqhumhh/dqgSlnhww|+4<<<,dqgDjklrq/Edffkhwwd/dqgEdqhumhh+4<<<,xvhdvlploduirupxodwlrq/dowkrxjkwkhvhwzrsdshuvirfxvrqwkhuhdovlghriwkhhfrqrp|1

6