潍柴动力（000338）:发布定增预案，聚焦长远发展

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财务预测摘要

资产负债表(百万元) 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 利润表(百万元) 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 货币资金38,209.95 48,817.62 40,090.09 94,112.38 63,653.13 营业收入159,255.83 174,360.89 182,227.69 188,644.84 204,206.73 应收票据及应收账款38,148.03 30,205.40 49,808.36 22,380.72 55,763.46 营业成本123,686.41 136,353.24 142,738.95 147,322.19 159,230.20 预付账款1,109.23 996.71 844.32 1,210.17 1,034.35 营业税金及附加723.22 663.96 802.94 802.08 848.55 存货20,674.29 24,717.70 18,738.38 26,522.27 23,369.86 营业费用10,619.17 11,254.07 12,113.86 12,431.77 13,436.80 其他7,836.11 18,789.60 11,642.69 11,254.81 13,104.80 管理费用6,259.51 6,900.20 5,885.95 6,055.50 6,534.62 流动资产合计105,977.60 123,527.04 121,123.84 155,480.35 156,925.59 研发费用4,320.20 5,227.97 5,065.93 5,093.41 5,309.38 长期股权投资4,463.59 4,711.14 4,811.14 4,911.14 5,011.14 财务费用75.34 220.33 (59.53) (497.28) (695.80) 固定资产29,454.07 26,318.67 27,786.69 28,826.51 29,311.68 资产减值损失633.52 (469.19) 400.00 400.00 450.00 在建工程2,848.10 5,408.67 4,385.20 3,651.12 3,090.67 公允价值变动收益177.06 71.26 (746.05) (781.10) (571.83) 无形资产23,739.60 23,575.08 21,761.43 19,947.79 18,134.14 投资净收益464.81 694.69 437.81 532.44 554.98 其他36,665.53 50,633.03 41,015.84 42,911.73 44,719.90 其他(1,307.14) (711.53) 616.49 497.34 33.71 非流动资产合计97,170.90 110,646.59 99,760.31 100,248.29 100,267.54 营业利润13,603.73 14,155.89 14,971.35 16,788.51 19,076.13 资产总计205,276.37 236,831.67 223,072.44 258,053.37 259,583.49 营业外收入307.05 289.77 298.47 298.43 295.56 短期借款5,472.77 2,014.69 6,962.63 8,500.00 8,300.00 营业外支出52.50 94.01 102.58 83.03 93.20 应付票据及应付账款46,794.37 59,194.91 41,926.67 66,692.34 51,299.36 利润总额13,858.28 14,351.65 15,167.24 17,003.91 19,278.48 其他36,349.83 44,667.17 44,110.04 41,387.49 47,151.20 所得税2,232.55 2,444.64 2,321.38 2,746.07 3,115.97 流动负债合计88,616.96 105,876.77 92,999.35 116,579.83 106,750.56 净利润11,625.73 11,907.01 12,845.86 14,257.83 16,162.52 长期借款10,908.51 11,373.66 5,400.00 5,300.00 5,200.00 少数股东损益2,968.21 2,802.05 3,206.58 3,518.17 3,942.05 应付债券12,265.02 10,295.28 11,006.69 11,189.00 10,830.32 归属于母公司净利润8,657.53 9,104.96 9,639.27 10,739.66 12,220.47 其他31,226.54 39,511.24 33,136.35 34,624.71 35,757.43 每股收益（元） 1.09 1.15 1.21 1.35 1.54 非流动负债合计54,400.07 61,180.18 49,543.04 51,113.71 51,787.76

负债合计143,017.04 167,056.95 142,542.39 167,693.54 158,538.32

少数股东权益22,945.59 24,550.78 27,757.37 31,275.54 35,217.59 主要财务比率2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 股本7,997.24 7,933.87 7,933.87 7,933.87 7,933.87 成长能力

资本公积113.70 118.90 317.18 184.99 207.02 营业收入 5.07% 9.48% 4.51% 3.52% 8.25% 留存收益33,231.95 38,375.00 44,838.81 51,150.42 57,893.71 营业利润31.00% 4.06% 5.76% 12.14% 13.63% 其他(2,029.15) (1,203.83) (317.18) (184.99) (207.02) 归属于母公司净利润27.16% 5.17% 5.87% 11.42% 13.79% 股东权益合计62,259.33 69,774.73 80,530.05 90,359.83 101,045.17 获利能力

负债和股东权益总计205,276.37 236,831.67 223,072.44 258,053.37 259,583.49 毛利率22.33% 21.80% 21.67% 21.91% 22.03%

净利率 5.44% 5.22% 5.29% 5.69% 5.98%

ROE 22.02% 20.13% 18.27% 18.18% 18.56%

ROIC 26.41% 30.03% 53.25% 27.67% 239.32% 现金流量表(百万元) 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 偿债能力

净利润11,625.73 11,907.01 9,639.27 10,739.66 12,220.47 资产负债率69.67% 70.54% 63.90% 64.98% 61.07% 折旧摊销7,403.92 8,070.96 3,441.13 3,581.51 3,700.09 净负债率-4.28% -17.39% -10.21% -66.02% -28.70% 财务费用665.17 1,299.87 (59.53) (497.28) (695.80) 流动比率 1.22 1.19 1.33 1.35 1.49 投资损失(464.81) (694.69) (437.81) (532.44) (554.98) 速动比率0.99 0.96 1.12 1.13 1.27 营运资金变动14,339.51 (10,396.89) (17,242.90) 39,558.77 (43,610.23) 营运能力

其它(11,307.89) 13,648.43 2,460.53 2,737.07 3,370.21 应收账款周转率 4.14 5.10 4.55 5.23 5.23 经营活动现金流22,261.63 23,834.69 (2,199.31) 55,587.29 (25,570.23) 存货周转率7.86 7.68 8.39 8.34 8.19 资本支出10,459.24 16.17 8,546.92 685.25 778.45 总资产周转率0.81 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.79 长期投资1,824.66 247.55 100.00 100.00 100.00 每股指标（元）

其他(19,464.86) (8,654.58) (8,329.25) (1,006.33) (1,182.83) 每股收益 1.09 1.15 1.21 1.35 1.54 投资活动现金流(7,180.96) (8,390.85) 317.67 (221.08) (304.38) 每股经营现金流 2.81 3.00 -0.28 7.01 -3.22 债权融资35,545.00 36,681.99 31,867.10 34,453.94 34,650.68 每股净资产 4.96 5.70 6.65 7.45 8.30 股权融资(599.96) 555.84 1,346.57 368.92 721.65 估值比率

其他(41,925.33) (44,805.06) (40,059.56) (36,166.78) (39,956.98) 市盈率13.89 13.21 12.48 11.20 9.84 筹资活动现金流(6,980.30) (7,567.23) (6,845.89) (1,343.93) (4,584.64) 市净率 3.06 2.66 2.28 2.04 1.83 汇率变动影响0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EV/EBITDA 2.45 3.67 6.37 3.40 4.57 现金净增加额8,100.37 7,876.61 (8,727.53) 54,022.29 (30,459.25) EV/EBIT 3.45 5.12 7.84 4.15 5.49 资料来源：公司公告，天风证券研究所