中国半导体行业历史及现状

A change of pace for the semiconductor industry? The semiconductor industry

2 Semiconductors in the crisis

The central role of semiconductors and the constantly rising demand for them

are reflected in the continuous trend of growth in the sector. Industry sales have

more than quadrupled over the past 20 years and have achieved annual

average growth of 9% (CAGR) between 1988 and 2008. Fig. 4 Semiconductor sales

However, this growth should not disguise the semiconductor industry’s

exposure to considerable volatility, with specific and defined cycles that closely

correlate to economic cycles (see Figure 4, which shows the development of

worldwide semiconductor sales between 1998 and 2008). In growth years,

boosted by strong demand and profits, the semiconductor industry built up

significant production capacities, because this was the only way to finance the

high costs of setting up new installations. The surplus capacities which existed

after the years of economic growth (e.g., in 1995, 2000 and 2007/8) exerted

pressure on prices, with corresponding consequences for profitability and

growth. Production capacity declined, semiconductors were affected by a

shortage of supply, and prices stabilised. This, in turn, resulted in market

growth, and the process started anew (e.g., in 1998 and 2002). The correlation

between the cyclical nature, production capacities and supply and demand is

not the only factor with a major impact on sales. Seasonality also influences

supply and demand patterns. For instance, consumer electronic products

(mobile telephones, MP3 players and computers) are mainly purchased in the

run-up to Christmas, and demand for chips reflects that seasonality.

However, the current crisis is significantly different than previous cycles, with

two factors that exacerbate each other. On the one hand, in mid-2008, the

industry was in a market that was already declining, with excess capacities and

falling prices, such as those affecting DRAM memory modules. On the other

hand, demand dropped significantly in the industry’s main markets. Automotive

sales declined by 4% in 2008, a slowdown was reported by PC manufacturers,

and demand for mobile devices and consumer electronic products has been

declining since the end of 2008. This trend has continued in 2009.

The DRAM manufacturers, which together with the processor manufacturers

constitute the main market group in the semiconductor industry, are suffering

the most from low sales prices and comparatively low sales volume. Indeed,

even before the crisis, the prices for some DRAM memory modules were lower Between 1988 and 2008, global semiconductor sales increased annually, on average, by 9%.

The current crisis affecting the semiconductor industry is mainly attributable to lower sales on user markets. The situation is being exacerbated by global excess production capacities.

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