工程量快速计算方法

鍏堢敓鍦?626骞翠互浠峰€?骞翠互浠峰€?鍏堢敓鍦?骞翠互浠峰€?24鐨勭墿鍝佸悜鍗?鐨勭墿鍝佸悜鍗?绗畨浜轰拱涓嬫浖鍝堥】宀涳紝鐜板湪璇ュ矝灏哄湡瀵搁噾銆?绗畨浜轰拱涓嬫浖鍝堥】宀涳紝鐜板湪璇ュ矝灏哄湡瀵搁噾銆?涓嬫浖鍝堥】宀?鎷ｄ究瀹滃暒锛?鎷ｄ究瀹滃暒锛?

16

1.4.3.1 鏇煎搱椤垮矝鐨勪环鍊兼瘮杈?

鍋囪褰撴椂24鍏?骞存伅鎶曡祫鑷?6骞?鍋囪褰撴椂 鍏冧互8%骞存伅鎶曡祫鑷?骞达紙鍏?80骞达級 骞存伅鎶曡祫鑷?骞?澶嶅埄璁＄畻鍏剁粓鍊笺€?锛屽鍒╄绠楀叾缁堝€笺€?

FV = $24 脳 (1 + .08)

浠峰€?20.57涓囦嚎锛侊紒鐢ㄨ绠楀櫒璁＄畻锛?涓囦嚎锛侊紒鐢ㄨ绠楀櫒璁＄畻锛?浠峰€?涓囦嚎锛侊紒鐢ㄨ绠楀櫒璁＄畻

380

= $120.57 trillion

17

1.4.3.2 娌℃湁閭ｄ箞楂樼殑鍒╃巼鍚э紵

濡傛灉鎸夌収5%骞存伅璁＄畻鍛 紵 鎵?7.05浜?锛燂紒

18

1.4.4 娌冧鸡.宸磋彶鐗圭殑涓氱哗

/q?s=BRKA

19

1.4.4.1 娌冧鸡.宸磋彶鐗圭殑涓氱哗

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY-浠庢潵涓嶆淳鍙戣偂鎭?1965骞磋偂浠凤紕19 2006骞磋偂浠凤紕95200 锛?00806锛?1965-2006锛堝叡41骞达級骞村洖鎶ョ巼澶氬皯锛?

20

1.4.4.2 娌冧鸡.宸磋彶鐗圭殑涓氱哗

BIRKSHIRE HATHAWAY 65骞磋偂浠凤紕19 06骞磋偂浠凤紕95200 锛?00806锛?骞村洖鎶ョ巼澶氬皯锛?

23.0952%!!!

21

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY

22

1.4.4.3 鍋囪姣忓勾鐨勭泩鍒╁垎鍏夛紵

BIRKSHIRE HATHAWAY鐨勮偂浠凤細 鍗曞埄璁＄畻 鎸夐敭锛歋MPL 杈撳叆锛歞ys=365x41 EXE I%=23.0952 EXE PV=-19 EXE SFV:SOLVE SFV=198.9115 (鎶曡祫鏈熷叡寰楀埌) SI:SOLVE SI=179.9115 (鍏辫幏寰楀埄鎭? )

23

2 鐜板€?Present Value)

鐜板€尖€旀湭鏉ョ殑鐜伴噾娴侀噺鎸変竴瀹氬埄鐜囨姌涓虹幇 鍦ㄧ殑浠峰€?

鐝?鍊?P V =

= P V

t鏈?寰?鐨?绲?鍊?(1 + r ) t

24

2.1 鎶樼幇鍥犲瓙

鎶樼幇鍥犲瓙锛?factor锛?鎶樼幇鍥犲瓙锛坉iscount factor锛? DF

DF =

1 (1+ r ) t

鎶樼幇鍥犲瓙鍙敤浠ユ眰绠椾换浣曠幇閲戞祦閲忕殑鐜板€?

25

2.
2 鐜板€肩殑璁＄畻

鐜板€煎叕寮忔湁璁稿鐨勫簲鐢ㄣ€傛柟绋嬪紡鍏辨湁4 鐜板€煎叕寮忔湁璁稿鐨勫簲鐢ㄣ€傛柟绋嬪紡鍏辨湁4涓?鍙樻暟锛岀煡閬撲换浣?涓彉鏁帮紝 鍙樻暟锛岀煡閬撲换浣?涓彉鏁帮紝灏卞彲浠ユ眰瑙ｅ墿 涓嬬殑绗洓涓彉鏁般€?涓嬬殑绗洓涓
彉鏁般€?

PV = FV 脳

1 (1+ r ) t

26

2.3 鐜板€艰绠椾妇渚?

浣犲噯澶囦负鍒氬嚭鐢熺殑鍎垮瓙鍑嗗澶у鏁欒偛璐?鐢ㄣ€備綘棰勮鍦ㄤ粬17宀佹椂闇€瑕佹敮浠樺ぇ瀛︽暀 鑲茶垂鐢?5涓囧厓銆傚鏋滀綘鐩镐俊鏌愬彧鍩洪噾骞?骞冲